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It’s been another letdown season for the Los Angeles Chargers. Entering 2019 with high hopes and a standout defense, LA has not been able to get over the hump this season and has continued their tradition of losing close games in heartbreaking fashion. The Jacksonville Jaguars have also been defined by disappointment in 2019, as Gardner Minshew steps back in at quarterback for the ineffective and overpaid Nick Foles. Jacksonville has been blown out in four straight games, trailing by as many as 25, 32, 24 and 23 points in one-sided affairs that have sunk any chance of the playoffs and has turned the final month of the regular season into a personnel debate swirling around the uncertain future of head coach Doug Marrone and team president Tom Coughlin.
The signing of Foles to a 4-year, $88-million contract with $50 million guaranteed is being talked about as one of the worst signings in NFL history as Foles has not only been hurt for most of the season but has looked very poor when he has been on the field. Jacksonville will be without standout linebacker Myles Jack, who was placed on injured reserve Thursday because of a knee injury.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Chargers a 53.9% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s matchup between the Chargers and Jags.
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Chargers vs. Jaguars Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 8
Time: 4:05 pm
Location: TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Jaguars)
TV: FOX
Spread: Chargers -3
Total: 42.5
*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of Covers & The Action Network
Line Movement
This line opened at Chargers -1 and has been bet up to Chargers -3 with the slight majority of the bets favoring the Jaguars and the slight majority of the money going towards the Chargers. Since the action is split, this line movement is most likely due to sharp bets on the road favorite.
Betting Trends
- Chargers are 4-8 SU and 3-7-2 ATS this season
- Jaguars are 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS this season
- Under is 8-4 in Chargers games this season
- Under is 6-6 in Jaguars games this season
Analysis & Picks
In a game featuring two struggling offenses with nothing to play for, I think we could be in store for some points. I have no scientific stat line to back this up, except for prior experience betting overs in games where there is nothing to play for but pride. Both of these teams have had major issues moving the ball consistently this season and Jacksonville has been especially beaten down of late, losing the last four games by an average of 20.5 points. I expect Minshew to play better here and for the Jags offense to finally get rolling. On the other side, the decline of Philip Rivers continues but the veteran is still completing 64.7% of his passes this season so you can count on the Chargers putting some points on the board as well. Rivers has been turnover-prone of late with eight interceptions in his last three games. I’m counting on some turnovers leading to points and I expect this game to fly over the total as both teams let out some frustrations on offense.
PICK: Over 42.5
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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