Getty Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a 1.0-point favorite over the Atlanta Falcons in Sunday’s NFC South matchup at Raymond James Stadium.
Atlanta (6-9) is red hot and has won a season-high three straight games heading into Sunday’s finale. The Falcons are also no longer fighting for Dan Quinn’s job, as owner Arthur Blank has already announced he will retain Quinn next season. General Manager Thomas Dimitroff will also be sticking around. The experience has been humbling for Quinn. “Not every coach gets to see their team fight for him,” he said. Julio Jones is coming off his best game of the season grabbing 10 passes for 166 yards. He also became the fastest player in NFL history to surpass 12,000 receiving yards, accomplishing the feat in just 125 games, 17 fewer than Jerry Rice.
Tampa Bay (7-8) has won four of five and can finish the season with a .500 record if they can win on Sunday. Enigmatic quarterback Jameis Winston could become the first quarterback ever to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. Winston also leads the NFL with 4,908 passing yards this season and only trails MVP-hopeful Lamar Jackson in touchdown passes. Winston will be short-handed again on Sunday as wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are sidelined with injuries. Breshad Perriman will remain the No. 1 target. Perriman had 12 targets last week and has scored four touchdowns in the last three games since ascending the depth chart.
ESPN’s FPI gives Tampa Bay a 59.1% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s NFC South matchup between the Falcons and Bucs.
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Falcons vs. Bucs Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 29
Time: 1:00 pm
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
TV: FOX
Spread: Bucs -1
Total: 47.5
*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of Covers & The Action Network
Line Movement
This line opened at Bucs -2 and has been bet down to Bucs -1 with the majority of the action coming in on the Falcons. This line is correlated with the action and is moving with the market.
Betting Trends
- Falcons are 6-9 SU and 7-8 ATS this season
- Bucs are 7-8 SU and 5-8-2 ATS this season
- Under is 9-6 in Falcons games this season
- Over is 11-4 in Bucs games this season
Analysis & Picks
This is one of just four games on Sunday not featuring a team that has either clinched a berth or is still alive for a shot at the postseason. Jameis Winston is the headliner, as this could be his last game in a Bucs uniform. I personally think Tampa Bay does bring Jameis back, but anything can happen in free agency. As for this game, it does seem like the Falcons have turned a corner, especially defensively. Atlanta is allowing just 18 points per game during their winning streak. Another factor in this game is the field conditions, as a college football bowl game was played on this field just six days ago in poor conditions. Keep an eye on the turf early on to see if the footing is an issue. Regardless, I like what I’ve seen from the Falcons over the past few weeks, and the line movement also tells me Atlanta might be the right side.
PICK: Falcons +1
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith