Jets vs. Bills Odds, Predictions & Pick: How We’re Betting This AFC East Finale

DraftKings Showdown Sunday Night Football Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Getty Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are 1.5-point favorites over the New York Jets in Sunday’s AFC East matchup at New Era Field.

New York (6-9) is coming off one of its most impressive performances of the season, holding the Steelers to just 260 yards of total offense in a 16-10 win which put Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes on life support. The Jets will try to play spoiler again, this time by avenging a Week 1 loss to Buffalo in which the Bills came back from a 16-0 deficit in the 2nd half. The Jets have won five of their last seven games overall but are 1-6 on the road this season, with their only win coming over the Redskins.

Buffalo (10-5) is locked into the 5th seed in the AFC playoffs and will play either the Chiefs or Texans in the wild card round next weekend. Bills head coach Sean McDermott is playing coy about how much he will be resting starters in the game, most notably quarterback Josh Allen, who has been a major reason for the team’s resurgence into contention. The decision to rest Allen and all the key starters seem rather obvious, as Buffalo has nothing to play for. 

ESPN’s FPI gives Buffalo a 76.4% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s AFC East matchup between the Jets and Bills. 

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Jets vs. Bills Game Details

Date: Sunday, December 29
Time: 1:00 pm
Location: New Era Field (Buffalo, New York)
Spread: Bills -1.5
Total: 36.5

*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of Covers & The Action Network

Line Movement

This line opened at Bills -4.5 and has been bet all the way down to Bills -1 despite the majority of the bets and money coming in on Buffalo. This indicates a sharp reverse line move favoring the Jets.

Betting Trends

  • Jets are 6-9 SU and 6-9 ATS this season
  • Bills are 10-5 SU and 9-4-2 ATS this season
  • Under is 8-7 in Jets games this season
  • Under is 11-4 in Bills games this season

Analysis & Picks

I’m not sure why McDermott has been so indecisive about the decision to play Josh Allen the media, but the market can see the writing on the wall. This line has been bet down massively and has almost gone to a pick-em as Buffalo is sure to be sitting key guys in what accounts to a meaningless game for the Bills. On the other side, this is a revenge spot for the Jets, who blew a big lead to Buffalo back in Week 1 and has actually played respectable football for the past couple of months after a disastrous start. This is also a rare situation where the stats and trends of the key players, especially on Buffalo, are virtually meaningless when handicapping a game, as we are unsure about which ones will actually play and how conservative or aggressive each coach will be with their respective game plans. When that’s the case, I always lean towards the more motivated team, which in this case, is clearly the Jets.

PICK: Jets +1.5

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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith