The Baltimore Ravens are closing in on the No. 1 seed in the AFC and have already clinched a playoff berth as they take on the New York Jets Thursday in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is now the heavy favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award. Jackson is the first quarterback since Michael Vick in 2006 to rush for at least 1,000 yards in a single season. Lamar is battling through a quad injury but says he is 100% and will play on Thursday.
The Jets will most likely be without safety Jamal Adams who has not practiced this week due to an injured ankle. Le’Veon Bell is expected to play after missing Sunday’s game with the flu. Bell still made headlines over the weekend after going bowling just hours before the game.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Ravens a 93.4% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our analysis and prop bets for Thursday night’s matchup between the Jets and Ravens.
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Jets vs. Ravens Game Details
Date: Thursday, December 12
Time: 8:20 pm
Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore, Maryland)
TV: FOX, NFL Network
Spread: Ravens -16.5
*All prop odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Analysis & Prop Bets
It’s been a dream season for Lamar Jackson who is now the odds on favorite to win the MVP. He is a little banged up heading into this game which leads me to believe he won’t be running as much as usual. Considering how bad the Jets secondary has been this season I can see the Ravens offense being aggressive in the air. Jamal Adams and Quinnen Williams will miss the game with injuries. Jackson’s passing yard prop is currently sitting at 191.5 yards which is very low for an NFL quarterback. He hasn’t eclipsed that total over the past three weeks but has faced three very good pass defenses during that stretch (Rams, 49ers, Bills).
PICK: Lamar Jackson over 191.5 passing yards (-142)
I expect the Jets to be behind for most of this game, which bodes well for Sam Darnold’s passing attempts prop, which is going off at 33.5 on FanDuel. Darnold has exceeded this number in each of the last two weeks and game flow should dictate he goes over this number again.
PICK: Sam Darnold over 33.5 pass attempts (-122)
Taking a stab at a longshot here. Mark Ingram has not found the end zone in two straight weeks, but he has scored multiple touchdowns in two games already this season and should see an increased workload if Lamar Jackson’s carries are limited on a short week. I can see Ingram getting multiple opportunities on the goal line. His anytime touchdown odds are at -135 which I also think is worth a play, but our official play has a much higher payout. The odds here are juicy if Ingram can find paydirt twice.
PICK: Mark Ingram scores 2+ touchdowns (+430)
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith