Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M Prediction: How to Bet the Texas Bowl

Getty Kellen Mond breaks a tackle in the open field.

The Texas A&M Aggies are 5.5-point favorites over the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Friday’s Academy Sports & Outdoors Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium.

Oklahoma State (8-4) is appearing in a bowl game for the 14th straight season, which is the ninth-longest active streak in the country. Redshirt sophomore Chuba Hubbard, the nation’s leading rusher, will play in the game despite being undecided on his jump to the NFL. Hubbard has churned out 1,936 yards this season but still trails the great Barry Sanders by a wide margin for Oklahoma State’s all-time single-season mark of 2,850 yards set back in 1988. The Cowboys offense is ranked 33rd in the FBS averaging 33.4 points per game.

Texas A&M (7-5) has also been a consistent competitor in the postseason, appearing in its 11th straight bowl game. Head coach Jimbo Fisher is 6-2 all-time in bowl games and won his only appearance with the Aggies last season in a 52-13 Gator Bowl blowout of NC State. Kellen Mond rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown in the bowl win over the Wolfpack last season. The dual-threat quarterback followed that up with a strong 2019 campaign with over 3,000 total yards and 26 combined touchdowns. The Aggies will be without junior defensive tackle and sack-leader Justin Madubuike, who declared for the NFL draft and will skip the bowl game.

ESPN’s FPI gives Texas A&M a 62.0% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Friday’s Texas Bowl between the Cowboys and Aggies. 

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Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M Game Details

Date: Friday, December 27
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, Texas)
Texas A&M -5.5
Total: 54

*All lines and odds courtesy of SportsMemo, Covers, & The Action Network

Line Movement

This line opened at Texas A&M -4 and has been bet up to Texas A&M -5.5 despite the majority of the bets and money coming in on Oklahoma State. This indicates a slight reverse line move favoring the Aggies.

Betting Trends

  • Oklahoma State is 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS this season
  • Texas A&M is 7-5 SU and 7-5 ATS this season
  • Under is 7-5 in Oklahoma State games this season
  • Under is 7-5 in Texas A&M games this season

Analysis & Pick

Texas A&M has something to prove in this game. I can’t imagine the Aggies have had a good taste in their mouth for the past few weeks, after a 50-7 drubbing at the hands of top-ranked LSU in the season finale. The week prior to that, Texas A&M lost a tight 19-13 decision to Georgia. The Aggies played one of the toughest schedules in the country this year, with other matchups against Alabama, Clemson, and Auburn. Texas A&M failed to win a game against a ranked opponent this year, but they will get one last chance in the Texas Bowl as Oklahoma State is barely on the inside of the top 25. I think Texas A&M can control the trenches in this game as they are a battle-tested group with a proven track record of success in bowl games. Kellen Mond will find space against a Cowboys defense that has struggled when stepping up in competition this season. Jimbo Fisher adds another bowl victory to his resume and the Aggies cover in their home state. Don’t mess with Texas.

PICK: Texas A&M -5.5

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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith