Houston (21-9) is coming off a 113-104 victory over the Kings on Monday that saw James Harden and Russell Westbrook combine for 62 points. Harden stuffed the box score with 36 points, 13 assists and 3 steals in the Rockets 129-112 win over the Warriors back on November 6. Clint Capela mans the middle and is ranked 7th in the league with 2.0 blocks per game. Houston’s defense has struggled at times this season allowing 114.4 points per game.
Golden State (7-24) is trying to win three straight games for the first time all season. D’Angelo Russell led the way with 30 points in Monday’ 113-104 win over the timberwolves. Russell is red hot and has poured in at least 25 points in each of his last three games as he tries to fill the scoring void left by the injuries of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Glenn Robinson III is listed as probable for Wednesday’s game with an ankle injury.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Rockets a 72.7% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for the Christmas Day matchup between the Rockets and Warriors.
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Rockets vs. Warriors Game Details
Date: Wednesday, December 25
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
Location: Chase Center (San Francisco, California)
Spread: Rockets -11
This line opened at Rockets -10 and has been bet up to Rockets -11 with the large majority of the bets and money coming in on Houston. This line is correlated with the action and is moving with the market.
- Rockets are 21-9 SU and 15-15 ATS this season
- Warriors are 7-24 SU and 14-17 ATS this season
- Under is 17-13 in Rockets games this season
- Under is 17-14 in Warriors games this season
Analysis & Picks
I don’t like this matchup at all for Golden State. The Rockets remember what happened in the Western Conference Finals the last two years in a row, and they will have no issues kicking the Warriors when they’re down. Houston is clearly the better team this season and has a legit chance to make another run at the Finals. The big number does scare me a bit, as I tend to favor the home teams on Christmas Day, who are 8-2 ATS in the last two years. However, this feels like a good spot to buck that trend, as Houston will not hold back and will take pleasure running up the score in the Warriors building. The Rockets play at the 2nd fastest pace in the league, and I don’t think Golden State can keep up. If you’re interested in playing any props James Harden’s points prob is 37.5 on FanDuel, and it seems like a fair number considering he is averaging 38.6 points per game this season.
PICK: Rockets -11
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith