Getty Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are 13.5-point favorites over the Carolina Panthers in Sunday’s NFC South matchup at Bank of America Stadium.
New Orleans (12-3) can move up the ladder in the NFC with a win and some help, which is why Sean Payton is going all-in on Sunday and will likely play all of his starters. The Saints are already champions of the NFC South and cannot finish any lower than the No. 3 seed. A loss or tie by either the Packers or 49ers coupled with a win by the Saints would vault New Orleans into a top-two seed and more importantly, a first-round bye. Green Bay plays in Detroit while San Francisco visits Seattle.
Carolina (5-10) is 0-3 since interim coach Perry Fewell took over for the team in the wake of Ron Rivera’s firing with two of those losses coming by at least 20 points. Rookie Will Grier will be making his second straight start under center as the Panthers quarterback situation remains murky at best. Christian McCaffrey has been the lone bright spot this season, as the running back has put up MVP-caliber numbers. McCaffrey needs 216 scrimmage yards to break Chris Johnson’s record of 2,509 set back in 2009.
ESPN’s FPI gives New Orleans a 77.4% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s NFC South matchup between the Saints and Panthers.
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Saints vs. Panthers Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 29
Time: 1:00 pm
Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
TV: FOX
Spread: Saints -13.5
Total: 45
*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of Covers & The Action Network
Line Movement
This line opened at Saints -11 and has been bet up to Saints -13.5 with the large majority of bets and money coming in on New Orleans. This line is correlated with the action and is moving with the market.
Betting Trends
- Saints are 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS this season
- Panthers are 5-10 SU and 6-8-1 ATS this season
- Over is 8-7 in Saints games this season
- Over is 10-5 in Panthers games this season
Analysis & Picks
I expect this game to be very one-sided. The Saints still have everything to play for, and will not get a final answer on their playoff fate until very late on Sunday night. Due to the staggered start time of the pivotal 49ers/Seahawks matchup, New Orleans must treat Sunday afternoon’s matchup in Charlotte as a must-win. Getting a bye and an extra home game would be a big boost to the Super Bowl hopes of Drew Brees and company, who are already the second-favorite to win the NFC on FanDuel, with odds ahead of the Packers and only slightly behind the 49ers. Considering the poor debut for Will Grier against a shaky Colts squad, I can’t imagine him doing much better against a fired-up Saints defense. Carolina lost to Indianapolis 38-6 last week, and this week’s scoreline could be bigger if New Orleans puts the gas pedal down and leaves no doubt.
PICK: Saints -13.5
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