One of the NFL’s biggest matchups will take place Sunday at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, when the Tennessee Titans (8-5) host the Houston Texans (8-5) in a game that could very well determine how both teams fare postseason-wise.
The game appears to be a tale of teams heading in opposite directions. The Titans have won four straight, and have found new life this season after benching Marcus Mariota and going with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. The Texans have lost two of their last four, and are coming off what was arguably their most disappointing loss of the season to the Denver Broncos.
So who will have the edge in this one? Here’s a preview of the game, followed by trends and our prediction.
For the Texans to have a shot against the red hot Titans, they’ll need their defense to play much better than they did against Broncos rookie Drew Lock last week. They gave up three touchdown passes in the first half alone, and they’re allowing over 375 yards of total offense per game.
Deshaun Watson will also have to tighten up his game. Watson threw two fourth quarter interceptions against Denver last week, and Tennessee is bringing a top 10 defense to the table in this game. If Watson plays smart and is on his game this could turn into a shootout, because as good as Tennessee has been, they don’t have anyone who can cover DeAndre Hopkins.
The Titans are riding high, and are coming off a huge offensive performance against the Raiders. Ryan Tannehill threw for 391 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, and the Titans saw huge games from star running back Derrick Henry and wide receiver A.J. Brown. Henry had two touchdowns and another 100+ yard game, and while he has been dealing with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable, he should play. His injury bears watching, however.
This game could come down to how well Watson navigates this Tennessee defense that has been strong of late and has netted 35 sacks on the season. The Titans also have three defensive touchdowns, so Watson’s ball security will be huge in this one.
Trends, Betting Line and Prediction:
The following numbers and trends are all courtesy of Odds Shark.
Spread: Texans +3
Over/Under: 51.5 points
Odds Shark currently have the Titans winning the game by a projected score of 34-16, with the Titans covering the spread and the total score going under 51.1 points.
Betting Line: The line has moved slightly on this one, especially the over/under. Bovada initially had the line at -3 (-115) and the over/under at 48 points, and by week’s end, it was -3 (-110) with an over/under of 51.5. BetNow had the line at -2.5 (-115) to start the week, and the over/under at 47.5 points. By week’s end, it had moved to -3 (-110) with the over/under at 51.5 points.
Some trends to consider surrounding this game courtesy of Odds Shark:
- Houston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games.
- Houston is 8-4 SU in their last 12 games.
- The Texans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against Tennessee.
- Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee’s last 7 games.
- Tennessee is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee’s last 7 games when playing at home against Houston.
We’re with Odds Shark on this one. The Titans are the hotter team right now, and they’re at home. Look for Henry to tear up this Texans defense, and while Watson and company will have their shots, it may not be enough.
Final Prediction: Titans 31, Texans 27