For some, this game could feel like deja vu all over again when the Houston Texans host the Tennessee Titans. These two teams just played each other Week 15 in Tennessee, and the Texans won that game, 24-21.
This time, Houston will host, and while the Texans are now the AFC South champs, Tennessee can secure a Wild Card spot with a win in this game, so the Titans will control how the rest of their season goes.
So, how should you bet on this one? Here’s a preview of the game followed by trends and our prediction.
Houston enter this game riding higher than they have been in recent weeks. They’re the AFC South champs for the fourth time in the last five years, and they will be getting star defensive player J.J. Watt back from injury for the playoffs.
Will Fuller will be out for this game, so Keke Coutee will take his spot in the lineup alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills, although the outcome of the 1 PM Kansas City Chiefs game could impact how much Watson and Hopkins see the field. If the Chiefs beat the Los Angeles Chargers, look for Bill O’Brien to rest his key players for the majority of this one.
The Titans have lost two straight, but they will receive a huge boost by getting star running back Derrick Henry back for this game. Henry did not play in the Titans Week 16 loss to the New Orleans Saints, but he said this week that he plans on playing Sunday. “I love football,” Henry told the Associated Press Thursday. “I love playing the game, so I’m definitely ready.”
The Titans have lost seven in a row at NRG Stadium, and this will be one of their most crucial contests to date. They’ll be facing a Houston defense that is allowing 23.3 points, 112.8 yards rushing and over 270 yards passing per game. Watt won’t play until the first Wild Card game, so Houston will still be a bit vulnerable on defense.
Game Info, Betting Trends, Odds and Pick
*NOTE: all numbers and percentages that follow are courtesy of Odds Shark.
Time: Sunday, December 29 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium in Houston
Spread: Houston +3.5
Over/Under: 45.5 points
Odds Shark currently have the Titans winning the game by a projected score of 28-22 with the Titans covering the spread and the total score going over 45.5 points.
Some trends relating to both teams to consider:
- Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee’s last 9 games.
- The Titans are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.
- Tennessee is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against Houston.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston’s last 8 games.
- Houston is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games against Tennessee.
- The Texans are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
The Texans have been better at stopping the run than they have the pass, but that doesn’t mean Henry won’t have a big day. Look for the Titans to ride Henry into the playoffs, with the running back having a 100-yard game along with a touchdown or two. We’re with Odds Shark all the way on this one, as we also like an OVER total score.
Final Prediction: Titans 27, Texans 21