Vikings vs. Seahawks Prediction: Line Movement For Monday Night Football

Russell Willson

Getty Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson

Two teams with playoff aspirations meet on Monday night as the Seattle Seahawks will host the Minnesota Vikings. If the regular season ended today, both teams would be in the postseason as the two wild card teams in the NFC. If Seattle can win, they will pull even with the 49ers for first place in the NFC West after San Francisco lost to Baltimore on Sunday.

The Vikings need a win to keep pace with the Packers in the NFC North. So both teams are motivated, but Minnesota is more rested as they are coming off the bye. The Seahawks have also struggled to protect their home field this year going just 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS at Century Link Field. The sharp money is on Vikings +3 as the line has been moved off the key number to Vikings +2.5 at most books.

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Vikings vs. Seahawks Game Details

Date: Monday, December 2
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Century Link Field (Seattle, Washington)
Spread: Seahawks -2.5
Total: 49.5

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Movement & Analysis:

This line opened at Seahawks -3 and has mostly stayed there, according to One book, betMGM, is offering Seahawks -2.5 (-120) in an effort to induce more action on the Seahawks.  The action heavily favors the home team with Seattle receiving 71% of the bets and 66% of the money, according to The Action Network.

If you want to bet the Vikings +3 you will most likely have to pay at least 20 cents of juice. If this line continues to sink towards Minnesota that would be an indication of reverse line movement favoring the Vikings since the majority of the action is favoring the Seahawks.

Prop Bets & Predictions

Dalvin Cook has been one of the most consistent running backs in the NFL this season averaging almost 20 carries per game. He only carried the ball 11 times in the 27-23 win over the Broncos two weeks ago, but that game was an anomaly since Minnesota was trailing 20-0 at halftime and were forced to abandon the running game. Logic says establishing the run early against a Seattle defense which has struggled this season is the smart play, especially if you can take the 12th man crowd out of the game early. I expect the Vikings to feed Cook early and often who should have fresh legs off the bye week.

PICK: Dalvin Cook over 17.5 rushing attempts (-112)

The Vikings offense has had a very under-the-radar season with Kirk Cousins under center. The oft-ridiculed quarterback is completing 70.6% of his passes with 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions this season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks rank near the bottom of the NFL in DVOA. What’s even more surprising is Seattle’s putrid 1-4 ATS record at Century Link Field this season. Minnesota should be able to move the ball effectively and I expect them to be able to cover their team-total with ease.

PICK: Vikings team total over 24 (-104)

Rashad Penny has emerged for Seattle. With Chris Carson continues to fumble at an alarming rate, Penny stepped in with 129 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries last week in the 17-9 win over the Eagles. It almost doubled Penny’s usage for the entire season with just 36 carries coming in. The Vikings do have a very stout run defense this season, but if you think Penny will get at least half of the carries, which he certainly has a chance to if Carson puts it on the deck early, then this number is too low to pass up.

PICK: Rashad Penny over 26.5 rushing yards (-112)

There is value on the Vikings as an underdog in this spot as I’m not sure Seattle’s home-field advantage is quite as large this season. The Seahawks home/road splits are certainly a head-scratcher, but until they straighten things out for the 12th man, you have to take the plus-money where you can.

PICK: Vikings ML (+130)

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