Bucks vs. Spurs Prediction: How We’re Betting Giannis in San Antonio

Getty Giannis Antetokounmpo against the Detriot Pistons

The Milwaukee Bucks are 7.0-point favorites over the San Antonio Spurs on Monday night at AT&T Center.

 Milwaukee (32-5) won its fifth straight game after a 127-118 win over the Spurs on Saturday night and has the best record in the NBA. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 19 of his 32 points in the third quarter as the San Antonio defense had no answer for the reigning MVP. Giannis also finished with a season-high 15 made free throws in 18 attempts. Brothers Brook and Robin Lopez combined for 24 points, 11 rebounds, and eight blocked shots in the victory. Eric Bledsoe added 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting while Khris Middleton poured in 20 to reach that mark for the fifth time in the last six games.

San Antonio (14-20) will get another crack at the best team in the league as head coach Gregg Popovich will try to corral Giannis. “I thought we did a really good job in the first half, but he got away from us,” Popovich said after Saturday’s loss to Milwaukee. DeMar DeRozan led the way offensively for the Spurs with 26 points to go along with a team-high five assists in Saturday’s loss. DeRozan is averaging 25.7 points on 63.7 percent shooting over his last seven games. He has also committed just 12 turnovers during that stretch. San Antonio currently has the worst ATS record in the league at 12-21-1.

ESPN’s FPI gives Milwaukee a 74.1% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Monday’s matchup between the Bucks and Spurs. 

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Bucks vs. Spurs Game Details

Date: Monday, January 6
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Center (San Antonio, Texas)
TV: FS Wisconsin, FS Southwest
Spread:
Bucks -7
Total: 229.6

*All lines, odds & trends courtesy of FanDuel, Covers, & The Action Network


Key Injuries

Bucks

  • PG George Hill (illness) probable
  • SG Pat Connaughton (thigh) out
  • PF Giannis Antetokounmpo III (back) probable

Spurs

  • None

Betting Trends

  • Bucks are 32-5 SU and 21-16 ATS this season
  • Spurs are 14-20 SU and 12-21-1 ATS this season
  • Under is 18-18-1 in Bucks games this season
  • Over is 21-13 in Spurs games this season

Analysis & Pick

This game is a tough handicap. On paper, the Bucks laying just seven seems like an easy pick but considering these two teams played each other just 48 hours ago, I can see it being closer than the experts predict. Giannis had a dismal first half but picked things up in the third quarter however Milwaukee could not cover the 11.5-point spread in Saturday’s win over San Antonio, winning 127-118. The spread has moved 4.5 points with the change in venue, which is slightly more than usual for home-court advantage, which leads me to believe there is another reason for the compressed number. The only explanation can be familiarity and Gregg Popovich, who could have a few tricks up his sleeve trying to defend Giannis. If this line is a trap, I’ll fall for it. Give me the best team in the NBA laying less than double-digits against the worst ATS team in the league.

PICK: Bucks -7


READ NEXTCeltics vs. Wizards Prediction: How We’re Betting This Eastern Conference Matchup


Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith


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