Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Championship weekend has arrived in the NFL as four teams play for two spots with the winners moving on to Super Bowl LIV in Miami.
There are four potential matchups which could play out on Sunday, with each possible outcome accounted for when the Las Vegas Superbook revealed their lookahead lines for the Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs.
We offer our analysis of these lines and how best to take advantage of the potential value by betting them before this Sunday’s conference championship games.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans
Let’s get this one out of the way quick because the likelihood of it happening is slim to none.
Both Green Bay and Tennessee are over 7-point underdogs in their respective championship matchups this Sunday. I can certainly see one of these underdogs winning outright on Sunday, but I don’t think there is any value in betting this lookahead line due to the near certainty that the bet will have no action.
If you really think this is going to be the matchup on Super Sunday, you’re better off betting the standalone prop on FanDuel at +1400 for a Packers/Titans Super Bowl Matchup. It is interesting to note that this matchup would give us the lowest total of all four.
Spread: Packers -1 | Over/Under: 43.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Nobody would complain if we got a Super Bowl matchup featuring Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
The highest total of the four matchups would certainly give us a lot to chew on during the two-week buildup to this game. But if you think Green Bay can win outright on Sunday, betting the underdog here could give you the most bang for your buck in terms of value. If Kansas City struggles with Tennesee, I can see this line closing under the key number of Chiefs -3 and a ton of public money pushing the Packers line down.
A lot of the early money for the NFC Championship Game has come in on San Francisco, which means Green Bay is a juicy dog on Sunday, a spot they have excelled in. The Packers are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season and if you were to ask me which road team has the best chance to win outright, I would tell you to look no further than Aaron Rodgers.
Spread: Chiefs -4.5 | Over/Under: 52.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Tennessee Titans
This would be a very odd Super Bowl matchup and frankly not one I have a lot of interest in playing for lookahead value.
The 49ers are clearly the better team top to bottom, and may even be the best team in the NFL in terms of talent, especially on defense. Tennessee is on a magical ride that has to end at some point, my guess is this Sunday, making this line a moot point. Look elsewhere.
Spread: 49ers -4 | Over/Under: 44
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
We save the best for last. This is the game I want to see, and one I hope we get. It’s also the game where I think we have the most potential for significant line movement. If the Chiefs struggle to get past the Titans on Sunday, and the 49ers handle the Packers, I can see the San Fransico quickly elevated to the favorite.
Last year we saw the Rams open at -1 against the Patriots, with the early move pushing New England to a 2.5-point favorite just before kickoff. I can see that scenario playing out here, so if you like San Francisco this Sunday, don’t forget to sprinkle on this lookahead line as well.
Spread: Chiefs -1 | Over/Under: 50.5
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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Super Bowl Betting Guide: Early Lines for Titans, Chiefs, Packers & 49ers