Getty Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans in Sunday’s AFC Divisional Playoff matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.
Houston (11-6) is coming off a dramatic comeback win over the Bills in last Saturday’s AFC Wild Card Game. Deshaun Watson went 20-of-25 for 247 yards and a touchdown. What didn’t show up in the box score was a highlight-reel play in overtime avoiding an almost sure sack and setting up the game-winning field goal. Houston trailed 16-0 at halftime but scored 19 unanswered to take the lead before finally winning 22-19 in the extra session. The Texans are 29th in passing defense this season allowing 267.3 yards per game. Houston’s offense is nine in the league with 125.6 rushing yards per game.
Kansas City (12-4) is coming off the bye week after backing into the No. 2 seed thanks to a Patriots loss to the Dolphins in Week 17. Patrick Mahomes threw for 26 touchdowns this season, down from 50 in 2018. Travis Kelce became the first tight end with four straight 1,000-yard seasons but is questionable for Sunday because of a knee injury. Tyreek Hill had two touchdowns in the last meeting between these teams in Week 6. The Chiefs are 26th in rushing defense allowing 128.2 yards per game this season. Kansas City’s offense is fifth in points (28.2) and sixth in total yards (379.2) per game.
ESPN’s FPI gives Kansas City an 81.5% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s AFC Divisional Playoff matchup between the Texans and Chiefs.
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Texans vs. Chiefs Game Details
Date: Sunday, January 12
Time: 3:05 pm
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: CBS
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
Total: 51.5
*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of FanDuel, Covers & The Action Network
Line Movement
Chiefs -8 and has been bet up to Chiefs -9.5 with the majority of the bets and money coming in on Kansas City. This line is correlated with the action and moving with the market.
Betting Trends
- Texans are 11-6 SU and 8-8-1 ATS this season
- Chiefs are 12-4 SU and 10-5-1 ATS this season
- Under is 10-7 in Texans games this season
- Over is 8-8 in Chiefs games this season
Analysis & Picks
These two teams met back in October and the Texans came away with a 31-24 victory. Carlos Hyde rushed for 116 yards and Watson added 280 yards through the air. I don’t think Houston will be able to have that much success on the ground again as Kansas City’s defense has shored up its holes over the second half of the season. Andy Reid has been almost unbeatable coming off the bye posting a 7-2 record ATS when favored by a touchdown and coming off 11 days or more of rest. Meanwhile, Bill O’Brien is 3-8-1 ATS as an underdog of a touchdown or more. This is a major coaching mismatch. Kansas City has the credentials of a Super Bowl contender, and I think they will carve up the weak Texans defense rather easily.
PICK: Chiefs -9.5
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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