Tennessee (10-7) is coming off an upset victory over the Patriots in the Wild Card game last Saturday despite Ryan Tannehill completing just 2-of-6 passes over 10 yards. The Titans are 7-3-1 ATS with Tannehill under center this season. Adoree Jackson returned from injury and helped lead a Titans secondary that allowed Tom Brady to throw for just 209 yards. Derrick Henry was an unstoppable force at Foxobor with 34 carries for 182 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots 4th-ranked rush defense. The Titans are ranked 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense averaging 138.9 yards per game. Tennessee’s defense has struggled against the pass allowing 255.0 yards per game through the air.
Baltimore (14-2) is coming off the bye and will have home-field advantage through the entire playoffs after posting the NFL’s best record during the regular season. Lamar Jackson is the favorite to win league MVP after throwing for 36 touchdowns and rushing for 1,200 yards as the Ravens offense led the NFL with 33.2 points per game this season. Despite those eye-popping numbers, road underdogs are 8-3 ATS against Baltimore in games started by Lamar Jackson. The Ravens also ranked second in the league in total offense averaging 407.6 yards per game. Baltimore’s defense has also been stingy allowing just 17.6 points per game this season, third-fewest in the NFL.
ESPN’s FPI gives Baltimore an 81.8% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Saturday’s AFC Divisional Playoff matchup between the Titans and Ravens.
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Titans vs. Ravens Game Details
Date: Saturday, January 11
Time: 8:15 pm
Location: M&T Banks Stadium (Baltimore, Maryland)
Spread: Ravens -9.5
This line opened at Ravens -9.5 and was bet up to Ravens -10 at some books with the slight majority of the bets and money coming in on Baltimore. This line is correlated with the action and is moving with the market.
- Titans are 10-7 SU and 9-7-1 ATS this season
- Ravens are 14-2 SU and 10-6 ATS this season
- Over is 10-7 in Titans games this season
- Over is 9-7 in Ravens games this season
Analysis & Picks
My biggest question surrounding this matchup is will Baltimore’s defense be able to stop the runaway freight train that is Derek Henry. The Ravens defense is ranked 15th against the run and 12th in tackling, according to Football Outsiders. Considering the Patriots could not solve this dilemma with a much higher ranked defense, I’m not sure the Ravens can either.
On the other side of the matchup, I think Lamar Jackson’s biggest matchup advantage could come in the passing game. With Marquise Brown matching up against Adoree Jackson. Overall, Tennessee’s secondary is banged up with Malcolm Butler sidelined and I think there could be some value to the over with Jackson’s passing yards prop or Brown’s receiving yards prop.
Overall, road underdogs are 36-24-1 in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs since 2003, and while I think Baltimore does win the game, Henry and the Titans will keep things close enough to cover
PICK: Titans +10
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith