MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - OCTOBER 27: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat defends against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the home opener at Target Center on October 27, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Heat 116-109. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
The Miami Heat are 2.5-point favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday night at American Airlines Arena.
ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 59.1% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Monday’s matchup between the 76ers and Heat.
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76ers vs. Heat Game Details
Date: Monday, February 3
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: American Airlines Arena (Miami, Florida)
TV: NBATV
Spread: Heat -2.5
Total: 212
*All lines, odds & trends courtesy of FanDuel, Covers, & The Action Network
Key Injuries
- SG Josh Richardson (hamstring) out
- SF Justise Winslow (back) out
Betting Trends
- 76ers are 31-19 SU and 20-26-4 ATS this season
- Heat are 33-15 SU and 27-19-2 ATS this season
- Under is 23-26-1 in 76ers games this season
- Over is 28-19-1 in Heat games this season
Analysis & Pick
The 76ers have lost two in a row after a 116-95 loss to the Celtics on Saturday. Joel Embiid’s erratic season continued with a 1-for-11 shooting performance against Boston. The loss dropped Philadelphia to sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings as they fell to 9-17 on the road this season.
Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler scored almost half of Miami’s points in a 102-89 in-state victory over the Magic on Saturday. Herro dropped 23 off the bench and nailed six 3-pointers while Butler had 24 points in 34 minutes. Bam Adebayo and Meyers Leonard combined for 28 rebounds.
Despite holding the Celtics to just 26.7% shooting from the 3-point line, the 76ers defense could not contain Boston’s main scoring threats on Saturday. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 57 points.
Miami improved to 8-2 in the Southeast Division after its win over the Magic as they now lead Orlando by 12.5 games in the standings. The Heat have also been stellar against teams in the East going 21-7 overall and 13-1 at home.
The matchup to watch in this game will be upfront as All-Stars Bam Adebayo and Joel Embiid square off in the paint. Adebayo leads the team and is ninth in the NBA with 27 double-doubles this season. He grabbed 14 rebounds in the win over the Magic. Adebayo is averaging 10.5 boards this season and has collected double-digit rebounds in three straight games. The big man is a good bet to crack double-digits again on Monday as Miami dominates the paint.
The Sixers have been very inconsistent on offense this season and rank 23rd in the NBA in scoring as the Under has hit in seven straight games where Philly has been an underdog. Shooting guard Josh Richardson will miss his fifth straight game injured hamstring. Richardson is fourth on the team averaging 15.0 points per game this season.
The Over is 28-19 for Miami this season but 0-3 over the last three games as the Heat have clamped down defensively, holding Orlando to just 39.8% shooting from the floor on Saturday. The Heat are one of the best perimeter teams in the league this season and rank second in 3-point shooting (37.9%).
Philly has struggled to defend the 3-point line this season and we have already seen a modest increase in this total since the opening number was posted on Sunday night. The Miami shooters will have some room to roam in this matchup.
PICK: Heat -2.5
READ NEXT: 76ers vs. Celtics Prediction: Embiid Brings Game to Boston
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith