49ers’ Javon Kinlaw: Can He Replicate DeForest Buckner’s Production?

Javon Kinlaw walks off the field after South Carolina's game against Appalachian State in 2019.

When the San Francisco 49ers selected South Carolina’s Javon Kinlaw with the 14th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the purpose was to find an immediate successor to defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, who the Niners had recently traded to the Indianapolis Colts after San Francisco realized they weren’t going to be able to pay Buckner his ideal salary.

The Buckner trade gave San Francisco the 13th overall pick and allowed general manager John Lynch to move the defensive tackle for good value instead of signing him to a new contract like the team did with defensive tackle Arik Armstead.

In a way, the context of the Buckner trade somewhat establishes what San Francisco will expect of Kinlaw, but other factors will influence what Kinlaw’s first year in the Bay Area will contain.

NFL Readiness

Buckner was selected with the 7th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft with the expectation that the Oregon defender would produce from the opening snap of the 2016 season, but with the understanding that the 2018 Pro Bowler had tremendous upside no matter how his rookie year went.

After his senior season in Eugene, Oregon, Buckner had followed 13 tackles for loss in 2014 with 17 more in 2015, but also made a huge jump in the pass-rushing department with 10.5 sacks, doubling his college career total to that point (7.5.)

Kinlaw didn’t come especially close to either of those single-season totals while at South Carolina but did steadily improve his production as a pass rusher, notching four and six sacks in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

Kinlaw’s appeal as a prospect wasn’t based in unreal numbers, and even his college film likely betrays exactly how good he can be, as NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein pointed out in his draft profile of Kinlaw.

“For a player with so many elite physical traits, Kinlaw’s tape was much more inconsistent than expected. He had moments where he was able to use his size, length and power to overwhelm opponents, but poor pad level and an inability to harness his energy coming off the snap led to body control and balance issues that prevented him from reaching his full potential. He can be a disruptive force along the interior with that explosive first step and freaky physical gifts, but utilizing his heavy hands and plus length as a read-and-react 3-4 end might allow for improved technique, control and consistency. No matter the front, Kinlaw’s traits and potential could make him a solid starter early in his career.”

Size and Skills

Buckner has an inch or so on Kinlaw’s 6-6 height, and he’s noticeably faster and leaner than the South Carolina product. At the college level, Buckner’s truly unique stature was near unstoppable even when double-teamed.

Kinlaw also dealt with double teams as an established defender, and while it didn’t translate to double-digit sacks or tackles for loss in 2019, he proved to be a disruptive player against the run and pass with six sacks and six tackles for loss, with two of those sacks coming against Alabama and Georgia.

While Buckner’s biggest strength is being able to penetrate from just about any spot he lines up, Kinlaw doesn’t have much experience rushing from the edge.

It’s something that could be looked at as the Niners ease him into the team, but the easy way to think about it is this: Kinlaw and Buckner can both line up at three positions on a four-man front effectively, but Buckner’s stays productive towards the ends, while Kinlaw favors the interior and the strong side of the line.

The potential for growth in these types of areas is what makes Kinlaw an attractive addition, which Kinlaw acknowledged himself when talking about filling in Buckner’s shoes in the video below.

“[Buckner] started off as a raw player,” Kinlaw said. “And developed into a monster. I feel like once I get that type of coaching, I can probably be somebody that is like him.”

Fit in the team

When Buckner was drafted, the 49ers had just finished the 2015 season ranked 29th in yards allowed and gave up an average of 126.2 rushing yards. While he grew into a key addition, the 49ers didn’t immediately improve, actually allowing 165.9 rushing yards per game in 2016.

Kinlaw walks into a much different situation. Besides making a run to the Super Bowl, the 49ers were consistently dominant on defense, only allowing 19.4 points per game in the regular season.

With players like defensive end Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Armstead surrounding him, Kinlaw not only has time and room to grow, but the 49ers can also experiment to see exactly where he will be the most effective in the NFL.

Kinlaw had high praise for his new teammates, as seen in the video above.

“I think they might’ve been the best defensive line in football last year,” Kinlaw said. “I’m not just saying that. It’s the way they play. They play the right way, the way the game is supposed to be played.”

Kinlaw’s points about his new teammates and Buckner’s improvement during his time with the Niners ring true and set up a scenario in which Kinlaw will be comfortable and able to grow as he begins his NFL career.

Setting Expectations

This may go without saying for a 14th overall pick, but it’s highly likely that Kinlaw is the starter come Week 1. The value that the 49ers placed on the DT by trading Buckner is compounded by the recent news that defensive lineman Solomon Thomas’ fifth-year option was declined, which all but points to Kinlaw getting the opportunities one would expect of a mid-first-round pick.

Besides performing well against top-level college teams while in Columbia, South Carolina, Kinlaw is expected to grow technically and physically as he hits the next level, and will have the added factor of having a talented defensive line that will attract attention away and allow him to face centers and guards one-on-one.

It would be unfair to set Kinlaw’s expectations at Buckner’s level of production in the 2018 season, but his 7.5 sacks and 9 tackles for loss in 2019 actually feel like an on-the-money projection for Kinlaw’s rookie-year numbers. If the Niners’ newest defensive tackle can similarly produce, San Francisco will feel pretty good about swapping Buckner out for Kinlaw.

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Evan Reier is a sportswriter covering the San Francisco 49ers for Heavy.com and local sports for the Montana Standard in Butte, MT. Reach out to him on Twitter at @evanreier and follow Heavy on 49ers on Facebook.