RBC Heritage Odds and Picks to Win

The PGA Tour got off to a hot restart last week in Fort Worth at Colonial Country Club. The winner, Daniel Berger, wasn’t decided until late Sunday afternoon in a playoff with Collin Morikawa after the two fought their way to the top of a very crowded leader board. Expect this week’s RBC Heritage at Harbour Town to be no different.

In normal years, the RBC Heritage is the tournament immediately following The Masters. This scheduling generally produces surprising results as many players in the field are suffering from a “Masters Hangover” and others, mainly big names, often to choose to not even enter the field all together. This logistical anomaly leads to a very eclectic field from a world ranking perspective. When you also consider the golf course and that it doesn’t really reward power and distance like a lot of other courses, then you can end up with some surprising names on the leader board  come Sunday afternoon. Last year’s winner, C.T. Pan, is a perfect example after lifting the hardware as a 200-1 long shot.

This year’s event may be a bit of an outlier when it comes to those general trends that we typically see at the RBC Heritage. Granted, the venue hasn’t changed so the premium will still be on shot-making and finding fairways off the tee. The field however, has a much different feel than typical years at the RBC. This week’s field will have a full compliment of world class players as guys aren’t taking this week off due to the season’s first major no longer preceding it. And no one in the field will be suffering the “Masters Hangover” as we’ve also seen in years past. Unfortunately, it is for these reasons that this week’s tournament is quite difficult to handicap.

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Odds to Win

Below is a list of the top-20 players in the field in order of the odds to win the tournament. The names aren’t surprising, but some of their prices might raise some eyebrows.

Rory McIlroy 12-1
Justin Thomas 15-1
Bryson DeChambeau 15-1
Jon Rahm 16-1
Collin Morikawa 20-1
Xander Schauffle 20-1
Webb Simpson 28-1
Justin Rose 30-1
Hideki Matsuyama 30-1
Patrick Reed 35-1
Sung Jae Im 35-1
Jordan Spieth 35-1
Matt Kuchar 40-1
Dustin Johnson 40-1
Gary Woodland 40-1
Brooks Koepka 40-1
Daniel Berger 40-1
Bubba Watson 50-1
Tony Finau 50-1
Tyrell Hatton 50-1
Branden Grace 50-1
Rickie Fowler 50-1
Kevin Kisner 50-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 60-1
Abraham Ancer 60-1

Koepka, D.J. and Rickie all jump off that list when looking at the prices attached to their names. When was the last time we saw these guys with 40-1 or 50-1 odds? We can’t remember either.

Picks to Win

While it may seem like great value to pick a player like Koepka or D.J. with a long price, it may also be a sign that their respective games are far from being “in the groove” at the current time… sportsbooks are clearly not afraid of having exposure on them.

Similar to last week, we’re not making and hard and fast picks to win, but rather narrowing down the list to a handful of guys that combine a good price with a good chance to win. Also, like last week, we’re not encouraging betting all the players on our shortlist, but it’s a good place to start if you’re looking for a couple horses to ride this week.

Hideki Matsuyama 30-1
He’s making his post shutdown debut. It’s difficult to know what kind of shape his game is in, but he’s generally considered a quality ball-striker as well and a solid putter… both keys to success at Harbour Town.

Matt Kuchar 40-1
It’s simple…his game is basically ideal for this golf course. He won here in 2015 and finished runner-up last year.

Branden Grace 50-1
After a quality performance last week, 50-1 is a bit shorter than what we were expecting, but he still has value as a past champion.

Kevin Kisner 50-1
Kisner finshed runner-up in 2015. He’s often at a disadvantage due to length, but not this week. Kisner has the ideal game to play well at Harbour Town.

Abraham Ancer 60-1
Ancer had a strong showing at Colonial last week, and similar to Kisner, his game suits this golf course.

Shane Lowry 65-1
Lowry was leading during the early rounds last year and finished T3. This links style course fits his eye and his game.

Viktor Hovland 75-1
This young standout combines accuracy and distance off the tee. Without previous performances to look back on, he’s a bit of an unknown, but we love how he plays and see it translating to success at Harbour Town.

Jim Furyk 125-1
Great price for Furyk as he’s been fairly quiet the past couple seasons, but he’s a two-time past champion who’s clearly comfortable around this golf course.

Honorable Mention: Davis Love III
He doesn’t have individual odds posted to win as he’s included in the “field” section of the bet, but he may be worth betting to make the cut as his past results speak for themselves. If you had to pick a “Mayor of Harbour Town” it’s clearly DL3.

*Odds provided by William Hill

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