Getty Alexander Mattison was ranked the top breakout running back prospect.
Minnesota Vikings running back Alexander Mattison was just given a major seal of approval.
Rivers McCown of Football Outsiders listed Mattison as the top breakout running back prospect this season and said he is the Vikings’ “ultimate leverage” in the event of a Cook holdout: “someone who can do the job just as well without a high price tag.”
Mattison rushed for 462 yards on 100 carries and proved himself as a pass-catcher as well, averaging 8.2 yards per catch.
If Cook does hold out into the regular season, Mattison will likely be given lead-back duties in Gary Kubiak’s offense that has turned unknown players into 1,000-yard rushers and high-value prospects into stars.
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The ‘Ultimate Leverage’
Mattison was selected among the league’s best players who have flown under the radar so far in their NFL careers. All players listed were under the age of 26, were not first- or second-round draft picks.
Here’s what McCown wrote on Mattison:
Simply put: With Dalvin Cook holding out and on the verge of free agency, there are very few players with a better potential future situation than Mattison. Gary Kubiak’s running backs have been putting up 1,000-yard seasons whether they are good or not since before Football Outsiders even existed. The Vikings picked Mattison in the third round despite a number of pundits not having that high of a grade on him, which suggests they hold him in quite high esteem.
Mattison, like Cook, had a pretty mediocre combine that ended with a faceplant on the 40-yard dash, with a time of just 4.67 seconds at 221 pounds. That’s linebacker speed at defensive back size. But Mattison showed just about everything else you could want from a runner: physicality, quickness, vision and intelligence. It all led to massive production at Boise State, as Mattison even saw the field for all 13 games as a freshman.
In his first season in Minnesota, Mattison finished with a respectable 24 DYAR in 100 totes, despite a relatively low success rate of 38%. Mattison averaged 4.6 yards per attempt, with no real negative split when running zone plays, but SIS charting charged the Vikings with 11 blown blocks during those 100 attempts, and those 11 carries averaged minus-1.2 yards. With enough skill to be a competent receiver as well, the Vikings have the ultimate leverage against a Cook holdout: someone who can do the job just as well without a high price tag.
DYAR (Defensive-yards Above Replacement) is a metric used by Football Outsiders to measure how well a player performs compared to an average replacement at their respective position.
For Mattison to have a positive DYAR after 100 carries suggests Mattison in his rookie year was at the very least a reliable running back. He ranked 27th among league running backs with a minimum of 100 carries in DYAR and ahead of starters like Leonard Fournette and James Connor. It is a volume-based metric, meaning if Mattison produced at the same rate for 250 carries in a season, he would find himself in the ballpark of Todd Gurley, Devin Singletary and Alvin Kamara’s 2019 seasons.
Mattison also had the highest breakaway run percentage among all running backs last season.
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Trevor Squire is a Heavy contributor covering the Minnesota Vikings and journalism graduate from the University of Minnesota — Twin Cities. Connect with him on Twitter @trevordsquire and join our Vikings community at Heavy on Vikings on Facebook.