Getty Cam Newton gets a fresh start with the Patriots.
To borrow a phrase from Russell Wilson, the separation is in the preparation, but it is hard to feel ready for the start of this fantasy football season. My Week 1 Start-Sit picks aim to take out some of the uncertainty by leaning on what we do know.
With no offseason workouts or preseason games, rookies and new offensive additions are wild cards for Week 1. This rookie class is full of future fantasy stars, but that does not mean they need to find their way into your starting lineup right away. Hopefully, you have plenty of these rookies stashed on your bench, but I would be hesitant to start most until we see their NFL usage with the exception of a few players I have outlined below.
When in doubt, lean on the players that have had clearly defined roles throughout their careers. I would much rather have a player go wild on my bench than insert him into my lineup only to earn a zero. If someone has a great day on your bench, this is good news as it means you have a talented player for future weeks.
As a reminder, my weekly Start-Sit predictions are targeting players that are borderline lineup plays. Players like Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb and other early picks should always be in your lineup, even after a bad week. I am making the assumption that you will “start your stars” and will only be focusing on the more perplexing lineup decisions.
As always, you can reach out on Twitter @JonDAdams with specific fantasy football questions, and I would be glad to help you win your week.
Here’s a look at my Week 1 predictions to kick off the fantasy football season.
Start Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Texans & Sit Lions RB Kerryon Johnson vs. Bears
GettyClyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to get plenty of touches in Kansas City.
With no preseason games, running back proposes the biggest Week 1 decisions as most NFL teams utilize at least two rushers. No rookie helped their fantasy value more in the draft than Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the running back ended up in the perfect landing spot in Kansas City. The versatile back did it all at LSU and was plenty involved in the passing game.
Edwards-Helaire will get even more touches in Week 1 after Damien Williams opted out of the season. While Darrel Williams is sure to be involved, it is not enough to worry about Edwards-Helaire’s touches. Whether or not Edwards-Helaire is worth a first-round pick is a different debate, but if he is on your roster you have already paid the price. Look for the Chiefs rookie to start out with 15 to 20 touches which is more than enough to make a fantasy impact against the Texans.
The Lions are headed to a dreaded running-back-by-committee in 2020, and it is anyone’s guess how they will utilize their top backs. Kerryon Johnson is expected to be the starter, but the former Auburn back has been a major disappointment so far in the NFL. D’Andre Swift has major upside but spent most of training camp battling injuries. With little clarity on usage against the Bears, I’m avoiding starting both Johnson and Swift if my roster can help it.
RB Starts Week 1: Nothing about the depleted Jaguars defense is intimidating, but how the Colts will utilize their running back duo remains to be seen. Given the matchup, Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack should both do enough to finish in the RB2 range for Week 1. If you are in a pinch, both can be started, but lower your expectation until we see how the Colts utilize their rookie running back.
Todd Gurley finds himself with a new home, and fans can expect plenty of touches for the Falcons running back. As the Seahawks try to revamp their defensive line without Jadeveon Clowney, Gurley has an opportunity to get off to a strong start in Week 1.
RB Sits Week 1: Leonard Fournette found an even better landing spot in Tampa Bay just days after being released by the Jaguars. Fournette’s arrow is pointing up this season thanks to Tom Brady, but I want to see how Bruce Arians uses both backs.
Fournette will have had a little more than a week to learn the Buccaneers’ playbook, and Arians could ease him into the offense. I am not buying the idea that Ronald Jones is still going to be the featured back, but he could get a lot of carries in Week 1 as they gradually ramp up Fournette’s involvement.
If at all possible, I am avoiding Fournette and Jones until we see more of Arians’ plan. Speaking of uncertainty, I’m also avoiding the following backfields in Week 1: Patriots, Jaguars, Bills and Rams.
Start Colts QB Philip Rivers vs. Jaguars & Sit Rams QB Jared Goff vs. Cowboys
Getty Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff runs off of the LA Memorial Coliseum field following a win over the New Orleans Saints.
There is plenty of skepticism surrounding Philip Rivers as he enters the end of his career, but the quarterback has a real chance to succeed this season in Indianapolis. Colts head coach Frank Reich is one of the better offensive minds in the NFL, and has dealt with plenty of uncertainty at quarterback during his tenure in Indianapolis.
The Colts have a sneaky amount of weapons that will help Rivers’ transition. After years of getting beat-up with the Chargers, Rivers inherits Pro Football Focus’ third-ranked offensive line from last season. Rivers gets a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Jaguars to get off to a hot start.
There is little reason for optimism for Jared Goff aside from Sean McVay. Goff has struggled to find consistency and faces a difficult matchup against a revamped Cowboys defensive line. Dallas has an opportunity to play spoiler as the Rams open their brand-new stadium on Sunday Night Football. This matchup scares me away from starting most of the Rams offense in Week 1.
QB Starts Week 1: There has been no shortage of Cam Newton talk since he arrived in New England, but there is a reason to think this odd new marriage could work for both parties. We have heard a lot about Bill Belichick wanting to get more creative on offense but did not have an athletic quarterback to take advantage of shifting NFL schemes. No one feels bad for you when Tom Brady is your quarterback, but we could see a much different Patriots offense in Week 1. Look for a well-rested Newton to have himself a day against the Dolphins.
Speaking of Brady, the new Buccaneers quarterback inherits arguably the deepest wide receiver group in the NFL. Starting a quarterback in his first game with his new team is a bit terrifying, but Brady has fared well over his career in domes. This Saints-Bucs matchup has shootout written all over it, and Chris Godwin along with Mike Evans are going to do their part to make sure Brady shines in his NFC South debut.
QB Sits Week 1: One word of caution as we go over the quarterbacks to sit in Week 1. In many leagues, carrying one quarterback on your roster is a fine strategy which means some weeks you will have to take your lumps. Just because a player is a “sit” does not mean you should drop them, but it would be wise to lessen your expectations.
Overall, I am optimistic about Ben Roethlisberger this season, but with no preseason games I want to see the Steelers quarterback perform first before putting him in my lineup. If he is my only quarterback, I am lowering my Week 1 expectations for the Steelers star. It would not be surprising if Joe Burrow began his NFL career with 350 passing yards, but I am concerned about his start with such an odd offseason for rookies. If at all possible, I am sitting Burrow against the Chargers for the season kickoff.
Start Washington WR Terry McLaurin vs. Eagles & Sit Bengals WR A.J. Green vs. Chargers
GettyTerry McLaurin is poised for a strong second season.
Washington receiver Terry McLaurin is likely a must-start in his second NFL season, but things look even better against a revamped Eagles secondary. Philadelphia completed their overhaul by releasing several former starters, and the new unit is going to be tested by McLaurin’s route running in Week 1. The Washington wideout has a chance to be a top-12 receiver this weekend.
After missing all of last season, A.J. Green has been sidelined for the majority of training camp with injuries. While I do not mind taking a late flyer on Green, he is not a player I feel particularly comfortable with in my Week 1 lineup. With Burrow under center, Green has every opportunity to succeed this season, but we need to see him on the field first after a long layoff.
WR Starts Week 1: The Jaguars have gone through plenty of changes over the offseason, but none of these moves should impact D.J. Chark from being the team’s leading receiver. Chark will be one of the few Jaguars’ threats against the Colts and should hover around WR2 territory this season. DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown are both entering their second NFL seasons and are poised to have a big year.
Metcalf gets a Falcons defense that has its first test since being revamped this offseason. Brown faces the Broncos and is poised to be Ryan Tannehill’s top target this season. Preston Williams is another second-year receiver that has a chance to emerge as the Dolphins WR1. Given the number of Patriots’ defensive opt outs, Williams gets a plus matchup to start out the season.
WR Sits Week 1: Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs both have high upside with the potential to be the Raiders’ leading wideout. The question is which rookie will emerge to take over the role. Both receivers will start out in the WR3 range until we see the Raiders’ improved offense, but my preference is to keep them on my bench until we observe how the targets are distributed.
Stefon Diggs is likely to be the priority in the Bills offense, and I would avoid the other Buffalo receivers until a clear (if any) second receiver emerges. Expect Josh Allen to want to get Diggs involved early and often.
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