Getty Images Quarterback Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
The AFC North division champion Baltimore Ravens (13-4) play host to the AFC South division champion Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional playoffs at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time on Saturday, January 20.
Houston arrives in Baltimore after ousting the Cleveland Browns, 45-14, in blowout fashion in the AFC Wild Card Round but will meet the top-seeded and well-rested Ravens with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line.
This game features one of the more dynamic quarterback matchups of the postseason.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is at the forefront of the NFL MVP conversation, after passing for a career-high 3,678 yards with 24 touchdowns to seven interceptions. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud turned in one of the most impressive rookie seasons by a quarterback in recent memory, passing for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns to just five interceptions.
The Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model gives Jackson and the Ravens a 73 percent chance to win the game.
Here are five AFC Divisional game predictions generated by Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4:
1. Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud Each Have One of Their Most Impressive Performances
All eyes will be on Jackson and Stroud, both to see if the Ravens’ superstar is capable of shaking off past postseason struggles, and if the dynamic Texans rookie can take another step in his rapid development.
According to our model, both quarterbacks will put on a show and turn in one of their finest performances of the 2023 season.
Lamar Jackson Projections: 20.7 completions for 250.9 passing yards with 2.3 touchdowns, 2.6 sacks.
C.J. Stroud Projections: 23.6 completions for 278.9 passing yards with 1.9 touchdowns, 3.5 sacks
If both quarterbacks hit the benchmarks projected by the model would surpass their season averages in every statistical category. Jackson, this season, only surpassed six times over 250 passing yards, while Stroud passed for more than 278 yards six times, as well.
Expect both teams to lean on the passing game, both because of quality depth at wide receiver and because of the favorable weather forecast. As of Thursday, January 18, the forecast calls for 28 degrees under mostly sunny skies with winds between 15-25 miles per hour at kickoff.
2. Will Anderson Starts a Postseason Sack Streak in Texans vs. Ravens
Texans rookie pass-rusher Will Anderson practically lived in the backfield during Houston’s victory over the Browns on Super Wildcard Weekend.
Anderson logged three total tackles, one sack, one quarterback hit, and one tackle for loss, against Joe Flacco and the Browns.
The Heavy model expects Anderson to once again wreak havoc against Jackson in Texans vs. Ravens.
Will Anderson Jr. Projections: 1.8 tackles, 1 sack.
Anderson logged at least one sack in two of the past three games, and finished his rookie campaign with 45 total tackles and seven sacks, after being chosen No. 3 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.
3. Zay Flowers Emerges as Lamar Jackson’s Favorite Target
Rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers has been a driving force behind Jackson’s continued improvement from the pocket this season, quickly developing into a legitimate deep-threat in the Ravens’ offense.
Saturday afternoon, our model projects Flowers to once again be Jackson’s favorite target.
Zay Flowers Projections: 3.8 Receptions for 41.3 yards and .7 touchdowns.
While the Heavy model does not expect Flowers to reach his season averages, he figures to play a key role in the Ravens’ success through the air agains the Texans.
Flowers finished the regular season catching 77 passes for 858 yards and five touchdowns.
4. Devin Singletary’s Postseason Breakout Continues
Against the Browns, Devin Singletary was every bit the part of a dominant duel-threat running back.
Singletary looked explosive and elusive in the running game, posting 66 yards with one touchdown, while averaging 5.1 yards per carry, and adding three receptions for four years.
Our model expects an even more impressive performance from Singletary in Texans vs. Ravens on Saturday afternoon.
Devin Singletary Projections: 14 carries for 56.3 rushing yards, 2 catches for 13.3 yards, including 17.2 yards after the catch.
If Singleton hits those benchmarks, he would surpass his season average in every major statistical category.
5. The Game Will be Decided by a Touchdown … or Less
Earlier this season, the Ravens knocked off the Texans in blowout fashion, but it could be much different story this time around.
Jackson was held to just 169 passing yards with one interception in the Ravens’ 25-9 victory to open the regular season.
While each of the major sports books expects another blowout, universally installing the Ravens as a 9.5 point favorite, the Heavy model expects the game to be a field goal closer than that. Likewise, Vegas has the total holding steady across the board at 43.5 points, while our model sees a higher scoring affair setting the total at 46.5.
Here’s a look at how the models are comparing for Sunday:
* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.