Getty Randy Arozarena of the Tampa Bay Rays.
First 5 inning bets have gained significant popularity as they offer reduced risk and increased predictability. This is because you have a clearer picture of the starting pitchers for those initial innings, eliminating concerns about bullpen performance.
Below are a couple F5 bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for May 3.
MLB First 5 Bets
F5 Result: Boston Red Sox -0.5 (+114, DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins Starting pitcher Chris Paddack has struggled this season with a high ERA, frequent home runs allowed, and a high WHIP. While some statistics suggest he’s been unlucky, his performance against left-handed batters, who are prevalent in the Boston Red Sox lineup, raises concerns. Additionally, the Red Sox have been in excellent form against right-handed pitchers recently, ranking high in various offensive metrics and performing well against Paddack’s main pitches.
On the other hand, while the Twins have a solid offense overall against right-handed pitchers, they have notably struggled in the early innings but excel later in the game. Recent games have seen them struggle against quality pitching, and injuries to key hitters like Bryon Buxton further weaken their lineup.
Tanner Houck, who has performed well against the Twins in the past, is in peak form, with impressive statistics across the board. His ability to strike out batters, limit walks, and induce ground balls makes him a formidable opponent for the Twins.
F5 Result: Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 (-115, DraftKings)
I’m eyeing the Tampa Bay Rays 1st five innings run line against the New York Mets, particularly with the favorable odds currently available. The movement in the money line today suggests increasing confidence in the Rays’ chances.
Jose Quintana, despite a seemingly solid ERA, shows signs of regression, especially considering his struggles on the road. While the Rays have faced tough left-handed pitching recently, their historical performance against lefties at home suggests they still pose a threat.
Aaron Civale’s performance this season hasn’t been up to par, and there seems to be some overreaction to his last two starts. His stats on the surface aren’t impressive: a 5.06 ERA, allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings, and a 1.31 WHIP.
However, looking deeper, his expected ERA (xERA) and expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) paint a much better picture, suggesting he’s performed significantly better than his surface stats indicate. Additionally, his high home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB%) is likely to regress positively soon.
In his upcoming game against the Mets, who have struggled against right-handed pitchers lately, Civale could find success. Over the last ten games against righties, the Mets’ offense has been lackluster, posting a combined ERA of 1.43, allowing only 0.8 home runs per nine innings, and a 1.06 WHIP.
During this stretch, the Mets rank 19th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), 20th in on-base plus slugging (OPS), and 21st in on-base percentage (OBP) against right-handed pitching.
NRFI of the Day
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-120, DraftKings)
In the Detroit Tigers versus New York Yankees matchup, despite the hitter-friendly environment of Yankee Stadium and the Yankees’ potent offense, the over/under sits at a modest 7.5 runs. This suggests an opportunity to explore the Under 0.5 Runs in the 1st inning.
Factors contributing to the lower scoring expectation include the relatively cool temperatures around 60 degrees and winds blowing in from right field at 10 mph, which typically suppresses home run production. Additionally, both starting pitchers, Marcus Stroman for the Yankees and Reese Olson for the Tigers, have shown solid performances.
Against left-handed hitters, Stroman excels at inducing ground balls, which bodes well against the Tigers’ predominantly left-handed top of the lineup. Moreover, Stroman has a track record of delivering NRFIs in the majority of his outings this season.
On the other side, Olson faces a formidable Yankees lineup, but he has demonstrated respectable numbers with a solid SIERA and xERA. Despite a modest strikeout rate, Olson’s ability to generate ground balls, particularly against right-handed batters, suggests he can navigate through tough matchups effectively.
Considering the pitchers’ performances, the game environment, and historical trends, the Under 0.5 Runs in the first inning appears to be a viable bet in this matchup.