Getty Will Smith and Jurickson Profar exchanged words at home plate on April 13.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for April 16. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Jordan Hicks Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140, DraftKings)
Tonight, the San Francisco Giants will be up against the Miami Marlins. Jordan Hicks is set to pitch for the Giants, facing off against a team that hasn’t shown a strong offensive performance in the 2024 season. The Marlins currently rank 6th lowest in total hits among all MLB teams, with just 123 hits so far.
It’s worth noting that Hicks hasn’t surpassed the prop line since 2022, and this season, he’s consistently fallen under it for 3 consecutive games, averaging only 4 hits over 6 innings. Throughout the season, the Giants have maintained an average of 8.59 hits per game, combining both starting pitching and bullpen performances. According to our model, Hicks is projected to give up significantly fewer hits tonight, with an expected tally of just 1.2 hits.
Ranger Suarez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-150, DraftKings)
Ranger Suarez of the Philadelphia Phillies is set to take on the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have struggled against left-handed pitchers this season, boasting only a 71 wRC+ and .682 OPS. This difficulty against lefties extends from last season, where they ranked last in baseball with a 74 wRC+ and had a .701 OPS, which was among the bottom 25 teams.
Suarez has showcased impressive form this season, comfortably pitching 6 innings in his last 2 starts and delivering a quality start in his first game against the Atlanta Braves. Known for his efficiency, Suarez typically falls below the MLB average in pitches per plate appearance. Although our model projects Suarez to record a similar number of outs as his prop line suggests, I lean towards the over based on Suarez’s track record of historically pitching deep into games.
Lock of the Day
Patrick Corbin Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-150, DraftKings)
Patrick Corbin’s struggles this season, coupled with his lack of solid strikeout ability and propensity to give up hits, make him a risky matchup against the formidable Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Following the Dodgers’ tough loss last night, I anticipate their offense will come out swinging today.
Corbin has exceeded the prop line in all 3 of his starts this season and in 4 historical starts against the Dodgers. Moreover, he surpassed this line in approximately 65% of his starts last season, averaging 6.6 hits per game. Unfortunately, this season hasn’t been kind to Corbin, as hitters are batting .391 against him, and he’s allowing a concerning 15.9 hits per 9 innings pitched.
The Dodgers boast the 7th-best batting average against opposing pitchers, and 6 players in their starting lineup have a career batting average of .275 or better against Corbin. Our model predicts Corbin will surrender 6.4 hits tonight.
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