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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 23. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Jose Altuve to Record a Hit (-265, DraftKings)
In his last 20 games, Jose Altuve has averaged 1.4 hits per game and has recorded at least one hit in 90% of those games. Throughout 2024, Altuve maintains an impressive 80% hit rate, demonstrating consistency with an average of 1.3 hits per game. He excels against the Oakland Athletics, boasting a 74% hit rate against them.
In 2024, Altuve holds a .306 batting average overall, including a .299 average against right-handed pitchers across 319 plate appearances. This suggests strong potential for him to achieve a hit tonight.
Garrett Crochet Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-140, DraftKings)
There’s an intriguing angle to explore with Garrett Crochet potentially making his final start for the Chicago White Sox, given the looming trade deadline. Despite adjustments to his prop bets, likely due to anticipated reduced innings, there’s value in focusing on his walks staying under 1.5.
The Texas Rangers are adept at drawing walks, which may have influenced the line, factoring in the expectation of a shorter outing for Crochet. However, this bet hinges on Crochet not issuing more than one walk. Even if he surprises by pitching deeper into the game, this bet holds promise given that Crochet typically falls below this threshold in 65% of his starts. His strong control on the mound adds to the confidence in this wager.
By considering both his consistent performance and the specific circumstances of potentially limited innings, betting on Crochet to keep his walks under 1.5 could prove to be a strategic move tonight.
Lock of the Day
Collin Rea Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+100, DraftKings)
Rea has exceeded this mark in 3 of his last 5 games and maintains a 53% overage rate this season. His struggles are exacerbated on the road, where he’s surpassed 1.5 walks in 67% of games and in 4 of his last 5 outings.
Tonight, he faces the Chicago Cubs, who lead the league in BB% against right-handed pitchers and rank 5th overall in walks drawn this season, including the 6th most at home. Moreover, over the last 30 days, the Cubs rank 2nd in walks across MLB. In recent history, six of the last eight starting right-handers against the Cubs on the road have exceeded 1.5 walks, regardless of home or away splits. Notably, three of the last four pitchers to log at least 5 innings against Chicago also surpassed this mark.
This season, when Rea has pitched at least 18 outs on the road, he’s surpassed 1.5 walks in 6 out of 8 games, including the last four consecutively. This prop bet on Rea’s walks aligns with recent trends and the Cubs’ ability to draw walks, making it a favorable choice, particularly at these odds.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for July 23