Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 27. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110, DraftKings)
Since June 1, Brent Rooker has consistently exceeded this line in every game against left-handed pitchers (LHP). During this stretch, he averages 5 Hits + Runs +RBIs per game over six games. He’s surpassed this mark in 16 of his last 20 games, with an average of 3.8 Hits + Runs +RBIs per game.
In the past 30 days, Rooker has a remarkable 256 wRC+ against LHP and a 1.452 OPS, showcasing impressive performances. Against Tyler Anderson specifically, despite only one recorded hit, Rooker boasts a .318 xBA and a .546 xwOBA in 12 plate appearances, indicating he’s been notably unlucky despite strong contact.
Anderson performs worse at home and has struggled more against right-handed hitters. Rooker is well-positioned to exploit Anderson’s pitching tendencies, which predominantly feature fastballs and changeups.
Additionally, the Oakland Athletics have had the highest wRC+ against LHP over the last 30 days (195), and their OPS is an impressive 1.053 against LHP during that period. This strong offensive showing should provide ample opportunities for Rooker to drive in runs and get on base.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, DraftKings)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has exceeded this line in 12 of his last 20 games and 6 of his last 7. He’s been particularly scorching hot against right-handed pitchers (RHP) lately. In the past 30 days, Vlad has posted a 177 wRC+ and a 1.023 OPS against RHP. Over the last 14 days, those numbers are even better, with a 302 wRC+ and a 1.485 OPS. For the season, Vlad performs notably better at home, boasting a 168 wRC+ compared to a 120 wRC+ on the road.
Michael Lorenzen has struggled more against right-handed hitters. His splits show a .281 batting average, .503 slugging percentage, and .369 wOBA against RHH, whereas he’s only managed a .138 average, .247 slugging percentage, and .250 wOBA against lefties.
Additionally, Lorenzen’s lower walk rate against right-handed hitters reduces the likelihood of Vlad getting walked. Vlad’s matchup against Lorenzen’s pitch mix, which includes sinkers, sliders, and fastballs, is favorable. He has a .430 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs and sliders, and a .340 xwOBA against sinkers. With Lorenzen’s recent struggles, there’s a good chance Vlad will get at least five plate appearances today.
Lock of the Day
Bryan Woo Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-120, DraftKings)
Bryan Woo has stayed under this line in 7 of his 10 games this season, including his recent outing against Houston where he allowed just 4 hits over 5.2 innings. Last season, he went under this line in 13 of 18 games. Though this is only Woo’s third start back from injury, he was already managing a low to mid-70s pitch count before his injury.
Today, he faces the league’s worst offensive team, particularly against right-handed pitchers. The Chicago White Sox are at the bottom in nearly every offensive metric, including average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, isolated power, BABIP, and wRC+, often by significant margins.
Woo has been exceptional when on the mound, limiting opponents to a .209 batting average overall and a mere .167 average against right-handed hitters. Given that the White Sox lineup will likely feature mostly righties, this is a favorable matchup for Woo. He ranks in the 78th percentile for expected batting average (xBA), 98th percentile for barrel percentage, and 78th percentile for hard-hit rate. Additionally, his BABIP this season is .234, indicating he’s been effective in limiting hits.
Although year-to-year performance can vary, Woo went under this line in both of his games against the White Sox last season, allowing just 3 hits in each game. Overall, this sets up well for Woo to stay under 4.5 hits allowed against a struggling White Sox team.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for July 27