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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 28. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115, DraftKings)
Shohei Ohtani has been exceptional lately, clearing the 1.5 total bases line in 8 of his last 10 games. Notably, he has hit this mark in 8 consecutive games against right-handed pitchers. Over the weekend, Ohtani faced the Houston Astros and managed to record 2 or more hits in both games, indicating that the Astros’ pitching strategy has been ineffective against him. In the last 30 days, Ohtani has been on fire against RHP, boasting a stellar 220 wRC+ and a 1.205 OPS. His recent performance underscores how dominant he has been at the plate, consistently driving the ball with authority.
Spencer Arrighetti, the Houston pitcher scheduled to face Ohtani, has shown considerable weakness against left-handed hitters. His wOBA against lefties is elevated at .363, and he has allowed a .286 batting average and a .440 slugging percentage to left-handed batters this season. This suggests he is more vulnerable to left-handed power.
Additionally, in his 15 games against Houston since 2023, Ohtani has gone over the 1.5 total bases line in 11 of those games. While there are different pitchers each time, some players have a knack for performing well against specific teams, and Ohtani’s history against the Astros highlights his ability to thrive in these matchups.
Mitch Keller Under 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-160, DraftKings)
Mitch Keller is set to face the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are among the least strikeout-prone teams in the league. They rank 6th lowest for strikeout percentage this season and 3rd lowest over the past 30 days. Key Diamondbacks hitters have relatively low strikeout rates, with players like Corbin Carroll at 18.2%, Ketel Marte at 17.5%, and Gabriel Moreno at just 14.4%.
Recently, the Diamondbacks have successfully kept 5 of the last 7 right-handed pitchers under their strikeout lines. Keller has historically struggled against them, failing to exceed the strikeout line in both of his away games against the Diamondbacks, where he recorded just 3 and 4 strikeouts. Furthermore, this season, Keller has only surpassed his strikeout line in 44% of his away games.
Lock of the Day
Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105, DraftKings)
In the past 30 days, Brent Rooker has been on fire against right-handed pitchers (RHP), sporting a .375 batting average, a 1.222 OPS, and a 243 wRC+. Rooker has surpassed the 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs mark in 16 of his last 20 games and 14 of his last 20 games against RHP. Today, he faces Jose Soriano, against whom he is 1-for-3 with a home run, a .359 xBA, and a .706 xwOBA.
Soriano has struggled, with a below average xERA and xBA. His wOBA increases significantly when pitching at home and even more against right-handed hitters, rising 64 points at home and 116 points against RHH. Soriano primarily uses a mix of sinkers, knuckle curves, sliders, and fastballs—four of the five pitches that Rooker hits the best against RHP since June 1, based on xwOBA.
Additionally, Rooker’s wRC+ improves by 47 points in day games. The Oakland Athletics have the fourth-best wRC+ against RHP over the past 30 days and a .279 xBA against Soriano, suggesting plenty of chances for Rooker to drive in runs and get on base.
