Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 7. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Kyle Gibson Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-125, DraftKings)
Kyle Gibson has gone over this line in 11/16 games this season. His next game is against the Washington Nationals, who rank 17th in OBP and 20th in WRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Of particular note, Washington has the third lowest P/PA, which benefits Gibson by potentially allowing him quick outs. Their average BB% means Gibson isn’t at a disadvantage there.
Typically, a six-inning pitcher, Gibson faces a very favorable matchup this time. There’s no need to overanalyze this; Gibson’s struggles have mostly been against tougher opponents. If he has a bad game, it’s something to accept and move on from.
Tarik Skubal Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
Tarik Skubal has pitched at least six innings in 14 out of his 17 starts this season, and he’s been excellent in his last 14 outings. His exceptional ability to consistently throw strikes has been a key factor in his efficiency. His advanced statistics across the board are outstanding, marking him as a top-tier pitcher, especially in this favorable matchup.
Recently, the Cincinatti Reds have shown discipline at the plate with the sixth lowest walk rate over the last 14 days, and they’ve been aggressive, ranking 11th highest in swing rate. While they have been hitting left-handed pitchers well lately (116 wRC+ in the last three weeks), Skubal defies the usual expectations for a lefty pitcher.
Lock of the Day
Kutter Crawford Over 15.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (+100, DraftKings)
Kutter Crawford has consistently exceeded this mark in 14 of his last 17 starts this season, with a strong road record of achieving it in 7 out of 8 outings. Notably, he recorded an impressive 18 outs against the New York Yankees on June 16th. Since April 10th, Crawford has only missed this line once in 14 starts, mainly due to early season control issues where he had 3 to 4 walks per game. However, his recent outings have shown improved command, averaging just 1.2 walks over his last 5 starts, including only one walk against the Yankees. In fact, he hasn’t allowed more than 2 walks in his last 12 consecutive starts.
Crawford performs notably better on the road with a 2.70 ERA compared to 4.05 at home, partly due to the more hitter-friendly environment at Fenway Park versus Yankee Stadium. Despite facing the formidable Yankees lineup, which leads in WRC+ and ranks 4th in OBP against right-handed pitchers this season, they’ve shown signs of recent slump. Crawford has a solid history against them, limiting the projected lineup to just 6 hits and 4 walks across 45 plate appearances.
Crawford is expected to pitch deep into the game tonight, particularly with the bullpen potentially short on key relievers like Brennan Bernardino, Chris Martin, Greg Weissert, Chase Anderson, and possibly Kenley Jansen.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for July 7