MLB Best Player Prop Bets for June 13

Getty Justin Steele says he is alright after Cactus League game exit

Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.

Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 13. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.

MLB Player Prop Bets

Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 Hits (-105, DraftKings)

Tyler Soderstrom of the Oakland Athletics‘ is facing Joe Ryan, a pitcher who has shown remarkable success against left-handed batters. Ryan boasts impressive stats, with lefties hitting just .209 against him this season, accompanied by a solid 26% strikeout rate. Throughout his career, Ryan has consistently held lefties to low batting averages, showcasing a knack for inducing weak contact and ground balls, evident in his career hard-hit rate of 29% against lefties.

Soderstrom, still finding his footing in the majors, hasn’t shown much against right-handed pitchers, batting just .183 with a high strikeout rate of 33%. Ryan’s signature pitch, the splitter, has been particularly effective against lefties, with Soderstrom struggling against it in his limited MLB appearances. The Twins bullpen, known for its ability to maintain pressure on hitters, further strengthens Ryan’s potential for success. 

Garrett Crochet Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-150, DraftKings)

Garrett Crochet’s recent performance indicates a trend of surpassing 16.5 pitching outs, achieving this mark in six of his last seven games and all of his last three road outings. Notably, when Crochet exceeds 90 pitches, he tends to exceed 16.5 pitching outs in five out of six instances.

Facing the Seattle Mariners, who have struggled against left-handed pitchers throughout the season, ranking poorly in wRC+ and OBP. Additionally, they have the second-highest strikeout percentage against lefties and have seen five of their last seven starting left-handed pitchers exceed 16.5 outs.

While Seattle is adept at drawing walks, their hitters have struggled with low averages against left-handed pitching, with most of them boasting high strikeout rates. Crochet’s ability to consistently notch eight or more strikeouts correlates with surpassing the 16.5 pitching outs mark in the majority of his outings against the Mariners, aligning with a strong historical trend.

Lock of the Day

Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-130, DraftKings)

Justin Steele has shown a tendency to surpass this strikeout line in four out of his eight starts this season, with an even more impressive record of hitting this mark in three out of four road starts. However, focusing solely on this season doesn’t capture his full potential, as Steele’s pitch count was limited due to injury recovery. When he throws 75 or more pitches, he has exceeded 5.5 strikeouts in 15 out of his last 20 starts dating back to last year.

Facing the Tampa Bay Rays, who rank 4th in strikeout percentage against left-handed pitchers this season, Steele has a favorable matchup. With most of the Rays lineup boasting strikeout rates of 19% or higher against lefties, except for Yandy Diaz, Steele’s career 9.24 K/9 rate instills confidence in his ability to achieve at least one strikeout per inning, especially against a team prone to strikeouts. With Steele expected to return to his regular pitch count and favored to pitch six innings, reaching a strikeout per inning seems attainable against this lineup.

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