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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 16. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Corbin Burnes Over 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110. DraftKings)
Corbin Burnes is gearing up to face the Philadelphia Phillies today with an over 6.5 strikeouts line offering enticing odds. While he has only achieved this mark in 2 out of 12 games this season, Burnes has a perfect record against this particular Phillies lineup, surpassing the over in both prior matchups against many of the same batters. Notably, he boasts an impressive 44% strikeout rate against the Phillies over 59 at-bats, underscoring his dominance against this team.
The Phillies’ expected lineup presents several favorable matchups for Burnes in terms of strikeouts. Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, and Bryce Harper have notably high strikeout rates of 54%, 40%, and 62%, respectively, when facing Burnes. Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos also show vulnerability with strikeout rates of 40% and 22% against him. Brandon Marsh, returning to the lineup, holds a notable 28.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers and has struck out in all three of his previous at-bats against Burnes.
Burnes enters the game with impressive season-long metrics, including a chase rate in the 88th percentile at 33%, a whiff rate of 28.5%, and an above-average strikeout rate of 24%. These statistics underscore his ability to exploit favorable matchups, particularly against a Phillies team he has historically dominated.
Logan Gilbert Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-145, DraftKings)
Logan Gilbert faces favorable odds against the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have struggled significantly against right-handed pitchers this season, which adds weight to Gilbert’s promising outlook, especially considering his stellar performance at home with a .204 batting average against.
Gilbert has consistently stayed under these hits allowed mark in 10 out of 14 starts overall and in 4 out of 6 starts at home this season. His track record against Texas is equally impressive, having kept them below this line in 7 out of their last 7 matchups, including limiting them to just 2 hits on April 23.
At home, Gilbert has conceded only 29 hits across 39.1 innings pitched, further bolstering confidence in his ability to control opposing offenses. With an expected 6 innings pitched, Gilbert’s hits allowed per inning rate at home suggests an average of approximately 4.45 hits.
The Rangers’ offensive struggles are a significant factor, ranking 29th and 28th in wRC+ and OBP respectively. Moreover, in 9 out of their last 11 games against starting right-handed pitchers, they have failed to surpass these hits allowed line.
NRFI Play of the Day
Cleveland Guardians VS. Toronto Blue Jays Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-130, DraftKings)
Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays, boasting a strong track record with No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets this season, holding a 10-4 record overall and a perfect 6-0 at home. He squares off against the Cleveland Guardians, who have been held scoreless in a significant 79% of their first innings. At home, Berrios boasts impressive stats with a 1.82 ERA and .218 opponent batting average, demonstrating his prowess at Rogers Centre. His command is evident, ranking in the 73rd percentile for walk percentage this season.
On the other side, Ben Lively pitches for the Guardians and has also been reliable in NRFI bets this year with a 9-1 record. Facing the Blue Jays, who have been scoreless in 87.5% of first innings at home (the second highest rate in the league), Lively finds himself in a favorable position. Toronto ranks 22nd in wRC+ and OBP over their last 15 games against right-handed pitchers and are 27th in walk percentage versus right-handers. Lively holds impressive season stats with a 2.59 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
Notably, NRFI bets have successfully hit in the first two games of this series, further highlighting the trend and the reliability of both pitchers in avoiding first inning runs.
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