Getty Shohei Ohtani beats out an Aaron Judge throw home
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 20. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Gavin Stone Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (+100, DraftKings)
Since the Los Angeles Dodgers urged Gavin Stone to focus on pitching deeper into games, he has consistently delivered. In 8 out of his last 11 starts, including 7 of the last 9, he has surpassed 85 pitches, demonstrating remarkable reliability. His performance on the road has also been commendable, except for his initial outing where he was on a pitch count; in 3 out of 4 subsequent road starts, he has logged at least 6 innings pitched. During this stretch, he has averaged 93 pitches per game.
While pitching at Coors Field can be challenging due to the number of outs required, the Colorado Rockies offense has shown signs of decline. Over their last 15 games, they rank 13th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and 14th in on-base percentage (OBP). Their season-long rankings are 28th and 17th in these categories, respectively.
The Rockies also rank below league average in pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) and are in the bottom 11 in walk rate, which bodes well for Stone’s pitch count management. In a recent outing against Colorado, he threw 75 pitches over 5 innings, his second-lowest pitch count of the season, suggesting he is unlikely to be pulled early unless he struggles significantly.
Of particular interest in this proposition is the confidence shown in Stone by the Dodgers’ manager, who praised him for consistently keeping the team competitive and sparing the bullpen. Stone himself acknowledges this role, emphasizing his commitment to providing extended outings to support the bullpen’s effectiveness in later innings.
Given the Dodgers bullpen’s recent workload, having used 9 pitchers in the last two days, it is probable that Stone will be given ample opportunity to pitch deep into the game today.
Lock of the Day
William Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, DraftKings)
The Milwaukee Brewers have a promising opportunity tonight against a vulnerable pitcher slated for the San Diego Padres.
Adam Mazur will be making his fourth start in the majors, but he has encountered difficulties so far with San Diego. In just 12 2/3 innings pitched, Mazur has allowed 13 hits and 11 earned runs. His control has been a major issue, evidenced by an alarming 13 walks, leading to an inflated 7.82 ERA, 7.28 SIERA, and a high 21.3% walk rate, although these stats are influenced by a small sample size.
This brings us to William Contreras, the Brewers’ catcher who has had a stellar season. He ranks fourth in MLB with 89 hits and sixth with 53 runs scored. Contreras has excelled against right-handed pitchers, boasting a .306 batting average, .491 slugging percentage, and a robust 146 wRC+. Despite Mazur’s tendency to issue walks, which gives pause when considering Contreras in the total bases market, his ability to get on base consistently and his role as Milwaukee’s second hitter provide confidence that he can contribute on the scoreboard.
For more sports betting advice and analysis sign up for our newsletter.