Getty Juan Soto Hits a Home Run at Yankees' Stadium
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 22. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Juan Soto Over 1.5 Hits + Homeruns + RBI’s (-125, DraftKings)
Juan Soto presents a compelling opportunity to exceed 1.5 hits + home runs + RBIs on DraftKings tonight. He’s been in superb form, achieving this mark in 7 of his last 10 games. On average, he’s contributing 2.7 hits + home runs + RBIs per game this season, establishing himself as a consistent performer. Tonight’s matchup against Charlie Morton is especially promising given Soto’s past success against him. In their previous meetings, Soto has managed 6 hits in 10 at-bats, including 3 home runs.
Soto has excelled against right-handed pitchers this season, boasting a .305 batting average with 15 home runs. This is a great matchup, with Soto holding a strong 106 batting grade against right-handers, while Morton has struggled with a 62 pitching grade against left-handed hitters. Morton’s pitch mix, which includes curveballs, fastballs, and changeups, aligns well with Soto’s strengths, as he has a swing rate above 29% against all of these pitches. Given these factors, Soto is poised for a productive outing tonight, likely to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100, DraftKings)
Despite recent minor injuries, Jack Flaherty has assured he’s ready to pitch, and his recent increased pitch counts suggest he’s nearing full form. He has surpassed this strikeout line in 6 of his last 10 outings. In the 4 games where he fell short of 7 strikeouts, he logged 6, 6, 6, and 4 strikeouts respectively.
Flaherty faces a formidable matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank among the highest in strikeouts against right-handed pitchers this season. His impressive 33.3% strikeout rate places him in the top echelon of MLB pitchers. Equally impressive is his 3.7% walk rate, indicating excellent control and efficiency with his pitches. Flaherty’s performance is bolstered by his 96th percentile ranking in CSW (Called Strikes + Whiffs), highlighting his ability to generate swings and misses effectively.
Lock of the Day
Randy Vásquez Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-100, DraftKings)
Randy Vásquez’s performance metrics this season, particularly his placement in the 1st percentile for expected batting average (xBA) and expected earned run average (xERA), alongside pitchers like Patrick Corbin and Spencer Arrighetti, raise concerns about his effectiveness in the rotation.
The San Diego Padres bullpen is currently depleted, with major arms having logged significant pitch counts over the past two days, except for Suarez. This shortage of relief options likely means San Diego will heavily rely on Vásquez, allowing him to pitch until exhaustion.
In nine starts this season, Vásquez has consistently allowed a high number of hits: he has surrendered 4+ hits in all nine starts, 5+ hits in eight out of nine starts, and 6+ hits in six out of nine starts. Against elite offenses like the Phillies and Braves, and with bullpen fatigue a factor, Vásquez conceded double-digit hits—10 and 12 respectively.
Facing the Milwaukee Brewers today, who rank third against right-handed pitchers this season, strengthens the case for Vásquez’s vulnerabilities. Considering their recent success against pitchers like Cease, it’s likely they will exploit similar opportunities against Vásquez.
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