Getty Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 28. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130, DraftKings)
Cristopher Sanchez has performed exceptionally well at home this season, and now he faces a particularly favorable matchup. He has fallen below this run line in 11 out of 15 games overall and in all 8 home games. At home, Sanchez boasts impressive statistics with a 1.59 ERA and .231 opponent batting average over 51.0 innings pitched. His control is outstanding with a home BB/9 of 1.59 compared to 4.05 on the road, and a home K/9 of 8.65 versus 5.67 away.
In his upcoming start, Sanchez will pitch against the Miami Marlins, who rank last in the league in wRC+, OPS, ISO, and BB% against left-handed pitchers. They have struggled significantly against lefties, with 20 of the last 25 left-handed pitchers keeping them below the specified run line. Additionally, the Marlins score the fewest runs on the road this season, averaging just 2.97 per game. In 21 of the last 24 home starts by left-handed pitchers against the Marlins, they have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs.
Sanchez’s ground ball rate places him in the 97th percentile, which is particularly beneficial against the Marlins, who have the highest ground ball-to-fly ball ratio against left-handed pitchers this season.
Lock of the Day
Dakota Hudson Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125, DraftKings)
Dakota Hudson has excelled this season when pitching away from home. He has stayed below this threshold in 10 out of 15 games overall and in all 7 road games. On the road, he holds a remarkable opponent batting average of 1.97. This includes his recent outings where he allowed just 8 hits combined over 13.2 innings against tough offenses like the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers.
While Hudson’s overall metrics have been affected by a few rough starts at home, he ranks highly with an 88th percentile ground ball rate and a 74th percentile barrel rate this season.
His upcoming matchup is against the Chicago White Sox, who have struggled significantly against right-handed pitchers. They rank last in the league in batting average (.216), slugging percentage (.340), isolated power (.124), and batting average on balls in play (.264) against righties.
Five of the last six right-handed pitchers have kept the White Sox below the specified hit line, including the last three in a row. Additionally, Hudson has historically fared well against this White Sox lineup, limiting them to a combined 5-for-29 (.172) in their careers against him.
On average this season, Hudson throws 85.3 pitches and records 15.3 outs per start. With a well-rested bullpen behind him, the White Sox would need a significant early surge to challenge Hudson, something they have struggled to do all year.
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