Getty Yankees pitcher Marcus Stroman
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 29. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bet
Aaron Nola Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-105, DraftKings)
Aaron Nola has consistently performed well below his hits allowed line, achieving it in 11 out of 16 games this season and in 7 of his last 10 outings. His strongest performances have been at home, where he has stayed under this line in 7 out of 9 games, including his last 4 consecutive starts. Opposing hitters have struggled against him at home, batting just .208 on average.
Facing the Miami Marlins further enhances Nola’s prospects. The Marlins have struggled significantly against right-handed pitchers throughout the season, ranking 29th in On-Base Percentage (OBP) and 27th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties. Additionally, the Marlins have a historically poor record against Nola, managing just an 18-96 (.188) collective batting average against him.
Nola also boasts strong advanced metrics, ranking in the 70th percentile in Barrel Percentage and Hard-Hit Percentage, indicating his ability to limit hard contact and barrels against opposing hitters.
NRFI of the Day
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-130, DraftKings)
Aaron Civale of the Tampa Bay Rays has been exceptionally reliable in No Run First Innings (NRFI), boasting a 14-2 record overall this season and a perfect 8-0 record at home. His opponent today, the Washington Nationals, have struggled significantly in first innings on the road, being held scoreless in 89% of those instances and enduring a streak of 10 consecutive scoreless starts overall. Additionally, the Nationals rank 21st in On-Base Percentage (OBP) against right-handed pitchers over the past two weeks and 24th in Walk Percentage (BB%). Their propensity for ground balls versus fly balls ranks 4th highest in the last 15 games against right-handed pitchers. Civale notably performs much better at home, with a 1.70 lower ERA and a 0.50 lower opponent batting average compared to his road performances.
On the flip side, Jake Irvin takes the mound for the Nationals, having found success in NRFI bets with an 11-5 record this season and an impressive 8-2 record on the road. He faces the Tampa Bay Rays, who have struggled to score at home, remaining scoreless in 76% of their home games this season and ranking among the lowest in MLB for home runs scored. Irvin excels in limiting walks, ranking in the 84th percentile, and performs exceptionally well on the road with a 2.44 ERA and a .193 opponent batting average. In his last 24 innings pitched away from home, Irvin has allowed just 4 runs, equating to an impressive 1.50 ERA. The Rays also exhibit a vulnerability against right-handed pitchers, ranking 8th highest in strikeout rate over the last month.
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