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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 5. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125, DraftKings)
I am confident in Taillon’s ability to excel in this matchup. Facing the Chicago White Sox, who rank sixth in highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers over the last 15 days, Taillon is poised for success. Seven out of the nine projected White Sox batters boast strikeout percentages above 20% against righties this season, with five of them exceeding 25%.
A key factor influencing this bet is yesterday’s game interruption due to rain, causing the Chicago Cubs to utilize four relief pitchers. Consequently, Taillon’s pitching outs prop is notably high at over 17.5, indicating the Cubs’ reliance on him to go deep into the game against the weak White Sox lineup. Taillon has a strong track record, surpassing 4.5 strikeouts in four consecutive games when pitching over 17.5 outs at home, including once this season, and achieving this feat in 8 out of his last 10 outings overall.
Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI’s (-120, DraftKings)
Adley Rutschman is in a prime position for success tonight, facing off against Jose Berrios in what seems like a tailor-made matchup. Rutschman has a history of dominating Berrios, boasting an impressive .632 batting average with 12 hits in 19 at-bats against him, including two recent home runs. Furthermore, Rutschman’s recent form has been scorching, surpassing this betting line in three out of his last four games and hitting an average of 2.6 HRR per game this season in those instances.
Remarkably, he hasn’t struck out once in those 19 at-bats against Jose Berrios. Considering his consistency, it’s worth considering the additional bet on him not striking out. Moreover, Rutschman has surpassed this mark in nine out of his last ten games against the Toronto Blue Jays, suggesting a strong likelihood of success tonight.
Lock of the Day
Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150, DraftKings)
Carlos Rodon presents a compelling betting opportunity with the under on earned runs. With the struggling Minnesota Twins offense on the opposite side, Rodon stands to capitalize. Impressively, he has stayed under this mark in 7 out of his last 10 games this season, and his home performance has been particularly stellar. In fact, Rodon boasts a perfect 4 for 4 record in staying under at home, with a commendable 2.15 ERA in Yankee Stadium, compared to 3.71 on the road.
Facing the Twins, who have struggled significantly against left-handed pitchers recently, Rodon seems poised for success. Over the past month, the Twins have posted a wRC+ of just 82.6 against lefties, ranking 24th in the league. Their OBP against left-handers has been abysmal, sitting at the lowest in the league at .266 over the same period. Considering the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, the low OBP suggests that any potential home runs from the Twins are likely to be solo shots. It’s worth noting that Rodon faced the Twins last month at Target Field and surrendered only 1 earned run.