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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 6. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130, DraftKings)
Reynaldo Lopez has consistently kept his earned run total under 2.5 in 9 out of 10 starts this season, including 3 out of 4 on the road. His only deviation from this trend was against the Seattle Mariners on April 30th, since then allowing only 6 runs across the next 5 games. Facing a Washington Nationals team struggling against right-handed pitchers, ranking 22nd in wRC+, 22nd in OBP, and 29th in BB% over the last 15 games, Lopez seems poised for success.
Despite a slightly higher OBP to left-handed batters (.314 compared to .231 against right-handed batters), his batting average against lefties stands at a respectable .202. With an impressive 1.73 ERA overall and a lower 1.36 ERA in afternoon games, Lopez’s recent performance and pitch count management by the Braves further support the expectation of continued success today.
Zack Gelof Under 0.5 Hits (+100, DraftKings)
Despite being on a six-game hit streak, Zack Gelof’s statistics paint a concerning picture. Among 233 major league hitters with at least 150 plate appearances, Gelof ranks poorly in expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate, and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). With a slash line of .193/.254/.331 and a 72 wRC+ this season, Gelof struggles, especially against right-handed pitching, where he’s hitting just .184 with a 33% strikeout rate.
Facing the Mariners righty Bryan Woo, Gelof’s past success against him is overshadowed by closer examination. Gelof’s hits off Woo seem more luck-based than skill-driven, with neither hit displaying impressive exit velocities or expected batting averages. Furthermore, Woo has consistently performed well against right-handed batters, boasting low batting averages and high strikeout rates. With Woo’s strong performance and support from the Mariners’ bullpen, which ranks highly in strikeouts and opponent batting average, Gelof’s chances of recording a hit seem low.
Lock of the Day
Michael Busch Under 0.5 Hits (-130, DraftKings)
This is a difficult matchup for Michael Busch against Hunter Greene, who excels against left-handed batters. Greene’s track record against lefties showcases consistently low batting averages and high strikeout rates over the past three seasons. Among 125 qualified pitchers this year, Greene ranks highly in several key metrics, including expected batting average (xBA), barrel rate, expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), and strikeout rate. Against lefties, Greene primarily relies on his four-seam fastball and slider, further tilting the matchup in his favor against Busch.
Busch’s recent performance has been lackluster, with just 5 hits in his last 40 at-bats and poor expected batting average and strikeout rate rankings among qualified batters this season. Additionally, facing a formidable Cincinatti Reds bullpen later in the game, which ranks highly in strikeouts, opponent batting average, and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), adds further difficulty for Busch to get on base.
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