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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 7. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Logan Webb Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (-120, DraftKings)
Logan Webb continues to deliver on prop bets. He has consistently stayed under the hits allowed line in 8 out of 13 starts this season, including 5 out of 7 on the road. Now, he faces a Texas Rangers lineup that has been grappling with right-handed pitchers lately.
In their last 15 games, the Rangers rank second to last in both batting average and on-base percentage against right-handed pitchers. Over the past month, they’ve plummeted to the 11th worst in batting average against righties. This struggle persists at home, where they sit at the bottom in batting average against right-handed pitchers.
Webb has displayed stellar performance this season, especially against the Texas lineup. In all three career matchups against the Rangers, he has remained under the hits allowed line. Moreover, Texas batters have a dismal combined batting average of .009 in 47 plate appearances against Webb.
It’s worth noting that in 12 out of their last 15 games, the Rangers have failed to surpass line against starting right-handed pitchers.
Joe Ryan Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-105, DraftKings)
This line just doesn’t add up for me. Joe Ryan boasts exceptional command, ranking in the 94th percentile for walk rate this season and the 92nd percentile in 2023. He’s walked one or fewer batters in 10 out of 12 starts this season and an impressive 29 out of 41 since the beginning of 2023. His strategy of consistently pitching within the strike zone, with a zone percentage of 55.1%, and landing first-pitch strikes at a rate of 69.1%, further supports this.
The matchup also looks promising. The Pittsburgh Pirates have had the eighth lowest walk rate against right-handed pitchers since the start of May, sitting at 7.2%. They’ve shown aggressiveness at the plate recently, ranking eighth highest in swing percentage over the last 14 days. With Ryan’s tendency to attack the zone, I anticipate the Pirates will continue their aggressive approach, leading to fewer deep counts and limiting their walks.
Lock of the Day
Rowdy Tellez Under 0.5 Hits (+100, DraftKings)
Left-handed hitters have struggled against Ryan’s split this season, hitting just .200 with a .243 wOBA, and Tellez’s history against the pitch doesn’t offer much hope, with batting averages below .100 over the past three seasons.
Tellez’s overall offensive numbers are among the worst in the league this season. He ranks poorly in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and barrel rate among hitters with at least 150 plate appearances.
Even Tellez’s performance against right-handed pitchers, which is not impressive, doesn’t bode well for him in this matchup. He’s a career .230 hitter against righties, and this season, he’s batting just .210 with a below average wRC+.
Additionally, having the support of the Minnesota Twins bullpen, which boasts high strikeout rates, low opponent averages, and low FIP, further strengthens the case for betting against Tellez’s hits.
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