Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 1. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135, DraftKings)
The Texas Rangers Andrew Heaney, pitching today, has struggled notably against left-handed batters, sporting a dismal 16.87 ERA, .333 batting average against, and a high 3.4 HR/9 rate. On the other hand, CJ Abrams has been excelling against left-handed pitchers this season, boasting a .406 average, 34 plate appearances, 13 hits, 7 runs, 9 RBIs, and an impressive 259.5 wRC+. Abrams has consistently surpassed this line in his last 5 games against Texas, and he’s done so in all of his last 5 games overall.
With Heaney’s shaky pitching, it’s highly likely that Abrams, a standout for the Washington Nationals, will surpass this mark with ease. Our model gives Abrams a 57% chance to record a hit, a 39% chance to score a run, and a 45% chance to record an RBI. These are all decently high percentages for Abrams to get the job done tonight.
Shota Imanaga Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-165, DraftKings)
Shota Imanaga is set to pitch tonight against the New York Mets with a line of over 4.5 strikeouts. This line seems undervalued considering Shota’s impressive 25% strikeout rate this season. Additionally, the Mets have struggled against left-handed pitchers, with only a 12% strikeout rate, although the sample size is small, and they haven’t faced someone of Shota’s caliber yet.
The recent additions to the lineup, Tomas Nido and J.D. Martinez, both have high strikeout rates against lefties, along with several other Mets players. In 2 away starts, Imanaga is 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 11 strikeouts. Given these factors, it’s likely that Shota will surpass 5 strikeouts tonight against the Mets. Our model projects Imanaga to record 5.6 strikeouts against the Mets lineup.
Lock of the Day
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 15.5 Outs (-125, DraftKings)
Yamamoto is poised for success in this matchup now that he’s fully stretched out, consistently reaching over 90 pitches in his last 3 outings. Although he fell short of 15.5 outs in 2 of his first 5 starts this season, those struggles occurred early on. Since then, he’s exceeded expectations in his last 2 starts, pitching 6 innings and surpassing 97 pitches in each outing. Facing the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank poorly in batting average against (BAA), on-base percentage (OBP), and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), Yamamoto has a favorable opportunity, especially since he’s never faced this team before.
Recent right-handed pitchers have found success against the Diamondbacks, with 9 out of the last 10 clearing 5 innings, and only 4 right-handers failing to reach the 5th inning. Additionally, considering the Los Angeles Dodgers recent bullpen workload and a lengthy 10-inning game, Yamamoto could be given more leash today. Therefore, surpassing this mark should be easily achievable for him.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for May 1