Getty Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez considers his next move on the mound.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 10. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Casey Mize Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
Casey Mize is poised to surpass his line for pitching outs today. Right-handed starters have achieved this against the Houston Astros 71% of the time this season, largely due to the Astros’ low pitches per plate appearance and their moderate scoring against righties in the first five innings.
Mize himself has hit 16 or more pitching outs in 3 of his last 4 starts, all while throwing 87 plus pitches each time. With the Detroit Tigers having no day off for six days, they’ll likely want to spare their bullpen. Barring a rough outing, Mize stands a strong chance of hitting the over today.
Patrick Corbin Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105, DraftKings)
Despite his struggles this season, there’s potential value in considering Patrick Corbin to clear this line, as he’s managed to do so in 5 out of 7 starts. Despite his high ERA, his 4.41 FIP indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky. Corbin typically throws around 90 pitches per outing, and aggressive teams have given him ample opportunities to reach the 16 outs required. The Washington Nationals, who had Thursday off, have bullpen concerns with several pitchers potentially appearing for the third time in four days.
The Boston Red Sox offense has been average against left-handed pitchers this season, with a 101 wRC+. Additionally, their power numbers have been subpar over the last three weeks, ranking sixth-worst in ISO. Despite Corbin’s struggles, there is potential value here.
Clark Schmidt Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
Clark Schmidt has fallen short of this line in 6 out of his 7 starts this season. In the one game he surpassed it, he was pulled after 17 outs. The Tampa Bay Rays lineup presents a challenge, with 5 hitters boasting a batting average of .286 or better against right-handed pitchers this season.
Additionally, the Rays have been strong against right-handed pitching, ranking above league average in wRC+, OBP, and BB%. Schmidt typically throws around 90 pitches per outing, and with the New York Yankees bullpen having solid arms available, there’s less pressure to extend him deep into the game, especially in a close contest. Tampa Bay’s penchant for working deep counts is evidenced by their Top 10 ranking in pitches per plate appearance this season. Furthermore, 11 out of the last 17 right-handed pitchers have fallen short of this line against the Rays.
Lock of the Day
Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-150, DraftKings)
This line appears puzzling given Framber Valdez’s recent performance. He has surpassed this line in 3 out of his last 4 starts this season. Facing the Tigers, a team ranking above league average in strikeouts with the 8th most K’s this season, presents a favorable matchup. In his previous outing against, Valdez had 91 pitches and ample strikeout opportunities, although he finished with just 3 strikeouts, indicating potential for positive regression.
Against the Tigers lineup, Valdez has amassed 23 strikeouts in 78 at-bats throughout his career. Furthermore, his Chase % ranks in the 67th percentile, and his Whiff % in the 58th percentile, suggesting his ability to generate swings and misses. With such promising factors in play, the line seems low for Valdez, making the over at 4.5 strikeouts an enticing option.
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