Getty Images St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Lance Lynn
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 15. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Javier Assad Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
Javier Assad has over exceeded expectations this season with an impressive 1.70 ERA, but closer examination reveals his success may be attributed to good fortune, as his expected ERA (xERA) stands at 3.15. This Atlanta Braves team has been gaining momentum, particularly in night games, boasting top rankings in slugging, average, and on-base percentage. Despite recent struggles against right-handed pitchers, expectations are high for improvement given the team’s talent. With a fresh bullpen, regression seems inevitable.
Tanner Houck Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-140, DraftKings)
Following a grueling 12-inning game where the Boston Red Sox exhausted five bullpen arms, Tanner Houck’s performance stands out. He’s surpassed this mark in 7 out of 8 starts this season. Expect him to reach close to 100 pitches today, having consistently hit 95 plus.
Houck boasts exceptional efficiency, averaging 3.6 pitches per plate appearance, alongside impressive stats: a 2.24 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. His record against the Tampa Bay Rays batters is noteworthy, with a solid 0.111 batting average against in 25 at-bats. While the Rays have been middling against right-handed pitchers this season and over the last 30 days, Houck’s solid performance offers both a reliable baseline and significant upside, especially considering the state of the Red Sox bullpen.
Lance Lynn Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-125, DraftKings)
Fading Lance Lynn tonight, who has been under in 7 out of his last 8 starts this season with the St. Louis Cardinals. His only over came against the Athletics, where he lasted 7 innings, marking his only appearance beyond the 6th inning. Lynn, known for his durability, hasn’t been as efficient this year, averaging only 88.5 pitches per start compared to over 97 last year.
Tonight, he pitches in Anaheim against an average Los Angeles Angels lineup against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days, with a .683 OPS (12th in MLB) and 93.0 wRC+ (17th in MLB). What’s intriguing about this matchup is the Angels’ ability to make starters work, a challenge for Lynn who has struggled with control, as they average 3.92 pitches per plate appearance (11th in MLB).
Lock of the Day
Framber Valdez To Record a Win (-115, DraftKings)
I’m taking the Houston Astros at home as they appear to be turning their season around. After Ronel Blanco’s ejection in the 4th inning yesterday, the Astros had to rely on 5 bullpen arms, and with no off day tomorrow, they’ll likely give Framber Valdez a chance to go deep in this game.
The Athletics are starting Aaron Brooks, who hasn’t played in the majors since 2022 and has a 4.6 ERA in the minors. The Astros should score runs against him, and if Framber performs as expected in this matchup, he has a good chance to secure a win. Currently, the odds are -160 for an under 2.5 ERA, and he’s secured wins in 2 out of 3 starts where he’s gone under that mark this year.
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