Getty Blake Snell, San Diego Padres
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 22. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 Hits (-110, DraftKings)
Ceddanne Rafaela of the Boston Red Sox is facing an uphill battle in today’s matchup. With a struggling batting average of .198 and dismal advanced metrics placing him in the bottom 17th percentile or worse in key areas like xBA, xwOBA, and chase rate, Rafaela hasn’t found his groove this season. Adding to the challenge, he’ll be up against Tampa Bay Rays‘ right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot, who boasts an impressive near 30% strikeout rate and a stingy .198 xBAA, ranking him in the 89th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Pepiot’s arsenal, primarily featuring fastballs, sliders, and changeups, poses a particular threat to Rafaela, whose struggles against sliders and changeups are evident with batting averages of just .219 and .067, respectively. Even against 4-seam fastballs, Rafaela has managed just a .200 xBA. Furthermore, the Rays’ bullpen, known for its effectiveness, adds another layer of difficulty for Rafaela as the game progresses.
Freddy Peralta Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125, DraftKings)
While Freddy Peralta has surpassed this mark in only 4 out of 9 games this season, expectations are high for a strong performance for today. Despite a slight dip in form after a promising start to the season, he still maintains solid metrics with a .240 xBA and a 4.08 xERA, positioning him around the 50th percentile in both categories. Notably, Peralta boasts an elite strikeout percentage and generates a high rate of swings and misses.
Facing the Miami Marlins, who have shown slightly above-average offensive production in May, ranking around the middle of the pack in metrics like wRC+, wOBA, and wRAA, Peralta could find success. However, what makes the Marlins particularly enticing for Peralta is their tendency to see the fewest pitches per plate appearance in the league. Miami hitters exhibit the highest swing and chase percentages, often attacking early in the count, which could play into Peralta’s strengths and aid him in reaching the over on outs.
Lock of the Day
Blake Snell Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125, DraftKings)
Blake Snell displayed dominance in his recent rehab outings, striking out 17 out of 28 batters faced, marking a remarkable 60.7% K rate. He’s been gradually built up to 60 pitches, suggesting he might throw around 75 pitches tonight. Facing the Pittsburgh Pirates, who exhibit an average strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers at 21.9% over the past month, Snell stands out as an elite strikeout threat.
Recent left-handed pitchers like Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga each recorded 7 strikeouts over 88 pitches against the Pirates. Apart from Andrew McCutchen and Connor Joe, most of the Pirates’ lineup is unfamiliar with Snell, with no player facing him more than 5 times. Nonetheless, Snell has maintained his typical 32.4% K rate against this lineup over a combined 68 plate appearances, aligning with his past performance. Considering Snell’s current form, the odds are favorable for a strong performance at a reasonable price.
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