Getty Cedric Mullins at the plate during an April 30 game against the New York Yankees.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 29. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 Hits (+105, DraftKings)
Cedric Mullins has had a challenging season in 2024. He’s facing Kutter Crawford of the Boston Red Sox, who has been performing well this year with a 2.89 ERA in his first 11 starts. Crawford has been particularly effective against left-handed batters, limiting them to a .200 batting average and striking them out 25% of the time. Last season, he held lefties to a .209 batting average with a 24.7% strikeout rate over 259 plate appearances.
Crawford relies heavily on his cutter and 4-seam fastball when facing left-handed batters, throwing them about 65% of the time. Although Mullins has shown some success against cutters this season, his historical performance against them in 2023 and 2022 hasn’t been strong, hitting .135 and .220 respectively.
Mullins is having his worst season yet, with his expected batting average (xBA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) ranking poorly in the league percentiles. His strikeout rate is also at a career high.
When facing right-handed pitchers, Mullins is hitting .216 this season with a 25% strikeout rate. Last season, he hit .233 against righties with a 23% strikeout rate over 336 plate appearances.
Additionally, the Boston Red Sox bullpen has been solid in 2024, ranking 12th in strikeout rate, 5th in ERA, and 5th in xFIP.
Tyler Anderson Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-135, DraftKings)
Tyler Anderson has been consistently hitting this mark, achieving it in five consecutive games and in eight out of his last ten outings this season. Notably, he’s surpassed this line in three out of four home games.
While facing the New York Yankees lineup might seem daunting, Anderson has a favorable track record against them. The top half of the Yankees’ order has historically struggled against him, batting below .200. Additionally, the bottom half of their lineup has shown a lack of power against left-handed pitchers this season, with a sub .200 ISO.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen has been seeing significant usage lately, with four out of eight relievers being utilized in yesterday’s game. Over the last three games, they’ve used their bullpen extensively, indicating potential fatigue.
Moreover, the Yankees have been struggling against left-handed pitching on the road, batting just .208 with 16 hits over the last 30 days.
Anderson boasts a solid 1.04 WHIP, suggesting he’s capable of pitching deep into the game. Despite some recent games with multiple hits, the Angels have shown confidence in leaving him on the mound due to his efficiency in limiting runs.
In his last five games, Anderson has averaged 5.2 hits allowed, but he has also averaged 20.4 outs and only 2.4 earned runs, including two consecutive games with one or fewer earned runs.
Lock of the Day
Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125, DraftKings)
In the upcoming third game of the series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Shota Imanaga is slated to take the mound for the Chicago Cubs. Last night’s game extended into extra innings, forcing the Cubs to rely more heavily on their bullpen than they had anticipated. Consequently, there’s a good chance they’ll allow Imanaga to pitch deeper into the game, providing him with an opportunity to accumulate more strikeouts.
Imanaga has surpassed his strikeout line in his last five consecutive games and in six out of nine games this season. During his five-game streak, he has averaged 7.4 strikeouts per game. His prospects for strikeouts are further enhanced by the favorable matchup presented by the Brewers lineup.
The Brewers’ hitters rank sixth in strikeout percentage (K%) this season. Additionally, every player in their lineup has a strikeout rate of at least 20% against left-handed pitchers. Moreover, five batters in their lineup have a strikeout rate exceeding 25%, offering Imanaga ample opportunities to notch strikeouts in today’s game.
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