Getty Shota Imanaga takes a no-hit bid into the sixth inning during his major league debut.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-driven dfsPro model has highlighted several individual performances to watch out for during the games scheduled for April 26. Let’s dive into some of the top MLB player prop bets we’re favoring based on our statistical analysis sourced from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bet
Trevor Williams Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120, DraftKings)
This is a low line for Trevor Williams who has gone over in 3 out of 4 starts this season and 7 out of his last 10 starts. He achieved 5 strikeouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates and 4 against the Houston Astros, both known for being challenging matchups in terms of strikeouts compared to facing the Miami Marlins. Additionally, Williams has consistently performed well on the road, managing to meet or exceed this mark in 15 out of his last 20 away games.
Miami sits somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts. However, right-handed pitchers have recently found success in racking up strikeouts against them. In fact, all 14 starting right-handed pitchers facing Miami have garnered at least 3 strikeouts, with 12 out of 14 achieving 4 or more.
Williams primarily relies on 3 pitches: a 4-seam fastball, changeup, and slider, all of which the Marlins tend to strike out against frequently. Trevor has also demonstrated consistency in pitching 5 or more innings in every start this season, suggesting he’s capable of averaging at least 1 strikeout per inning.
Same Game Parlay of the Day
Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeoutes, Kutter Crawford Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Combined Odds (+240, DraftKings)
After an explosive debut where Shota Imanaga racked up an impressive 9 strikeouts against the Colorado Rockies, his recent outings have seen a significant drop in strikeouts, tallying just 12 combined over his last 3 games.
However, I see this as a prime opportunity to buy low on him. 2 of those matchups were against teams with high strikeout rates against left-handed pitchers in the first 5 innings, namely the Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers. Against the Dodgers, he might have easily notched 6 strikeouts if not for a game delay leading to his early exit.
Today, he’s up against the Boston Red Sox, a team that ranks dead last in strikeout percentage (K%) against left-handed pitchers, sitting at a whopping 30%. Moreover, when facing Imanaga’s primary 3 pitches from lefties, they rank 29th in both strikeout percentage and whiff percentage.
Looking at their projected lineup, a staggering 7 hitters have strikeout rates exceeding 27% against left-handed pitching this season. If there’s ever a matchup for Imanaga to rebound, it’s this one.
While facing Reid Detmers and his dominant performances might explain some of the strikeouts, it’s noteworthy that both Martin Perez and Alex Wood managed to rack up 7 strikeouts each against the Red Sox, despite pitching only 5 innings or less. That speaks volumes about the potential for strikeouts in this matchup.
Kutter Crawford has surpassed this benchmark in 4 out of his 5 starts this season and in 8 out of his last 10 starts overall. His strikeout ability has been impressive this year, evident from his 27.3% strikeout rate.
The Chicago Cubs have been struggling with strikeouts lately, particularly against right-handed pitchers. In their last 3 games, they’ve struck out the 3rd-most times in MLB, and 7 out of their last 8 encounters with right-handed pitchers have seen them exceed this threshold.
Considering the potential lineup, the Cubs’ batters collectively average around a 26% strikeout rate.
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