Getty The Washington Nationals kick their 2023 season off on March 30.
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for July 10.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Charlie Morton Under 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+105, DraftKings)
Charlie Morton has fallen short of this strikeout mark in his last two road starts and in three of his last five outings overall.
Tonight, he faces a tough matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have shown a remarkably low strikeout rate of just 15% against right-handed pitchers at home over the past 30 days. They rank 26th in strikeout percentage against righties over the last 15 days and 24th for the season.
The trend is clear: in the last 10 instances where right-handed pitchers have faced Arizona on the road, 9 of them have failed to surpass this strikeout line.
Furthermore, Morton’s performance this season hasn’t been as formidable as in the past, evident from the juiced Hits Allowed prop set at 4.5 and an Outs line under 17.5 for tonight’s game.
Considering Chris Sale’s recent effective outing against the Diamondbacks, it’s likely Morton won’t be required to pitch deep into the game if he struggles, given the bullpen’s freshness.
Morton has averaged only 15.5 outs per game over his last 10 road starts, indicating he would need over 1 strikeout per inning to reach that mark tonight. Against a Diamondbacks team that managed to hold Sale until later innings last night, achieving that strikeout line seems improbable.
Griffin Canning Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-150, DraftKings)
Griffin Canning has consistently fallen short of this strikeout total, doing so in 7 out of his last 10 starts and in 13 out of 18 games this season overall. Notably, three of his overs came against teams with high strikeout rates against right-handed pitchers—Boston, St. Louis, and Oakland—all ranked in the top 12 for K% in MLB.
Tonight, he faces the Texas Rangers, a team known for being tough to strike out. Against right-handed pitchers this season, the Rangers boast a K% of 19.8%, which ranks as the 8th lowest in MLB. Over the last 14 days, this number remains low at 20.1%, also ranking 8th lowest against righties.
Although Canning managed 5 strikeouts against the Rangers last year, his performance this season has shown a shift towards more contact pitching and fewer swing-and-miss opportunities. This trend is evident from his inability to exceed this strikeout line against teams like Chicago and Detroit both ranked highly in K% against righties (6th and 8th, respectively).
Strikeout Prop Bet of the Day
Patrick Corbin Over 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-130, DraftKings)
Patrick Corbin has surpassed this strikeout total in his last 4 consecutive road games, including 7 out of his last 8 starts overall this season. In fact, he has also exceeded this mark in 4 out of his last 5 starts overall.
Admittedly, Corbin has struggled against the New York Mets recently, falling short in his last 4 starts against them. Additionally, the Mets have been strong against left-handed pitchers, boasting a low 19% strikeout rate at home over the past 30 days.
However, what caught my attention is the trend against left-handed starting pitchers facing the Mets on the road: 10 out of the last 11 have gone over this strikeout line, including 11 out of 13 occurrences this season. Furthermore, in the broader context, 4 out of the last 5 left-handed starting pitchers have surpassed this number against the Mets overall, with 6 out of the last 8 doing so.
It’s also noteworthy that Corbin has performed well against teams with strong lefty-hitting lineups such as Los Angeles, Cleveland, and San Diego, consistently exceeding this strikeout line in each road game against them.
For more sports betting advice and analysis sign up for our newsletter.
Comments
MLB Best Strikeout Prop Bets for July 10