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Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for July 11. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Shane Baz Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-140, DraftKings)
In his recent return after recovering from Tommy John surgery, Shane Baz impressed with 6 strikeouts against Texas, showcasing his upper-90s fastball. However, today presents a tough challenge against the New York Yankees. They rank poorly in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers, standing 23rd over the last 15 days and 20th overall this season. Additionally, they lead in wRC+ and rank 3rd in OBP against righties, despite recent struggles.
Bookmakers have set Baz’s line at 15.5 outs, heavily favoring the under, implying doubts about his ability to pitch beyond the 5th inning. Given these factors, expecting more than 1 strikeout per inning against the potent Yankees lineup seems unrealistic.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen is also in prime condition, having had no reliever throw more than 18 pitches since Sunday. Recent trends also don’t favor pitchers against the Yankees, with only 2 out of the last 8 starters surpassing 5.5 strikeouts and 5 of the last 7 right-handed pitchers falling short of this mark against them.
Tanner Houck Over 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115, DraftKings)
The Oakland Athletics have recently struggled against pitchers like Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta, both of whom surpassed this strikeout mark in consecutive games.
Tanner Houck has established himself as the team’s top pitcher this season with consistent dominance. He has already surpassed 6 strikeouts in half of his home starts this year, including a notable 10-strikeout performance against the Athletics earlier this season. Expecting him to pitch at least 6 innings tonight, a scenario where he has exceeded this strikeout line in more than half of his games played this season and in 4 out of 7 home games with 6 or more innings pitched.
The Athletics struggle significantly against right-handed pitchers, ranking second highest in strikeout percentage over both the last 15 days and the entire season. Six out of nine projected hitters in their lineup tonight have strikeout rates exceeding 25% against righties this year.
Moreover, in the Athletics’ recent home games, five consecutive right-handed pitchers have surpassed this 6.5 strikeout mark. Given these factors, taking the over on Houck’s strikeouts at plus odds appears to be a favorable bet.
Strikeout Prop Bet of the Day
Luis Castillo Over 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110, DraftKings)
This bet looks solid given Luis Castillo’s trend this season, where he has fallen short of 6.5 strikeouts in 11 out of 18 games, showcasing a downward trajectory in recent outings. Over his last 10 starts, he has failed to exceed this mark in 8 games.
The Los Angeles Angels, his opponents tonight, have notably reduced their strikeouts against right-handed pitchers. They boast a 21.1% strikeout rate against righties over the past month, ranking 11th lowest in MLB. In the last week, they’ve been even more disciplined, with a 17.7% strikeout rate against right-handers, which is the 3rd lowest in the league.
Castillo’s strikeouts also tend to drop significantly when he pitches at home. In his last 5 home starts, he has not surpassed 4 strikeouts in any game and has remained under 6.5 strikeouts in all of them. On the road this season, he has been under this mark in 7 out of 9 starts, including his recent outing against the Angels where he recorded 6 strikeouts in a game played in Seattle.
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