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Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for July 6.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Matt Waldron Over 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120, DraftKings)
Matt Waldron has surpassed this mark in 13 out of 17 games and has been particularly effective at home, achieving over 3.5 strikeouts in 6 out of 7 starts while averaging 5.6 strikeouts per game and boasting a 9.00 K/9 rate.
However, the matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks might not be ideal as they rank 23rd in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers this season. Recently, right-handed pitcher Vazquez recorded six strikeouts against Arizona, highlighting their potential to limit strikeouts.
Waldron has a 20% strikeout rate (10 out of 50 batters faced) against the Diamondbacks this season and a 22.2% strikeout rate overall, placing him around the league average (50th percentile) in MLB.
Despite the matchup, Waldron has pitched effectively against Arizona this season, tallying 6 strikeouts over 9.0 innings. He is expected to pitch deep into the game, favored to surpass 16.5 outs and having thrown 6 or more innings in 6 out of his last 7 starts. Additionally, he has logged over 98 pitches in 3 out of his last 4 games, indicating increased trust and opportunities from his team.
Waldron’s knuckleball, utilized 39% of the time, has proven effective even in challenging matchups throughout the season.
Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110, DraftKings)
Ranger Suarez’s strikeout line against the Atlanta Braves looks promising given his strong track record this season. He has exceeded this mark in 11 out of 16 games he’s played, excluding those affected by injury, and has achieved 4 or more strikeouts in all 8 of his road games with an average of 6.4 strikeouts per game.
The Braves present a favorable matchup as they have the 9th highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the last month and the 10th highest for the season. Six batters projected in their lineup have a strikeout rate of 23% or higher against lefties.
Suarez ranks in the 80th percentile in Chase% this season and has excelled on the road with a 2.06 ERA, .196 opponent batting average, and an 8.77 K/9 rate. He also ranks highly in BB%, demonstrating strong control with only 5 walks issued over his last 135 batters faced.
In the last 13 games where a left-handed pitcher has thrown 5 or more innings against the Braves, 11 have surpassed the 4.5 strikeout line, including the last 6 consecutively. Suarez is heavily favored to pitch over 17.5 outs and has consistently faced 25 or more batters per game this season, ensuring ample opportunities to achieve strikeouts.
