MLB Best Strikeout Prop Bets for June 23

Sonny Gray has surpassed this threshold in 77% of his starts this season, achieving it in 8 of his last 10 games, which underscores his current form as a top-tier strikeout pitcher. Gray boasts an impressive 29.4% whiff rate and a 31.4% strikeout percentage (K%), placing him among the league’s best in terms of striking out batters.

While the San Francisco Giants generally rank mid-tier in strikeouts, Gray has historically fared well against their lineup. In 50 at-bats, the Giants collectively strike out 26% of the time against Gray. Notably, key hitters like Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto, and Matt Chapman, who are crucial in their lineup, have struggled against Gray with multiple strikeouts each, enhancing the appeal of this bet.

Analyzing the Giants’ expected lineup against right-handed pitchers reveals significant strikeout potential, with several batters having notable strikeout rates, presenting ample opportunities for Gray to capitalize.

Gray’s breaking pitches have been exceptionally effective this season, boasting a strikeout rate of 57.6% and a put-away rate of 30.6%, the highest among starting pitchers using similar pitches. This suggests he could rack up multiple strikeouts against a Giants team that features seven prime targets for strikeouts in their lineup.

Overall, I anticipate another dominant performance from Gray, especially given the Giants’ recent struggles against elite right-handed pitchers.

Hogan Harris Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125, DraftKings)

Hogan Harris has fallen short of this mark in 3 out of 5 games this season, including 2 out of 3 games at home where his strikeout totals were 5, 3, and 3. His upcoming opponent is the Minnesota Twins, known for their disciplined approach at the plate. Recently, the Twins rank 29th in strikeout percentage against left-handed pitchers over the last 15 games, 25th over the last 30 games, and 22nd for the entire season. Only three players in the projected Twins lineup have a strikeout rate exceeding 20%.

Minnesota has shown a tendency to work deep counts, leading MLB in both 3-0 and 2-0 counts, indicating their ability to avoid strikeouts by getting ahead in counts early. Additionally, the Twins have been exceptionally effective against left-handed pitching, leading the league in both wRC+ and OBP over the last 15 games.

Harris ranks poorly in several key pitching metrics, including Chase% (11th percentile), SwStr% (15th percentile), and Whiff% (18th percentile). At home this season, he has managed a modest 6.06 strikeouts per nine innings. In the past six games against left-handed starters, five of them have failed to meet or exceed the 4.5 strikeout line against the Twins.

Strikeout Play of the Day

Reese Olson Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-150, DraftKings)

Reese Olson possesses strong strikeout potential and appears primed for improvement in that aspect, which I anticipate could unfold in his upcoming start. Currently, Olson boasts a robust 32% chase rate, placing him in the 83rd percentile, and a 67th percentile whiff rate, despite his strikeout rate being in the 44th percentile. This suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and is due for better results in the strikeout department.

Reviewing his starts this season reveals that most of his challenges came against tough opponents like Cleveland, Toronto, Kansas City, Washington, and Minnesota. Conversely, he has performed well against more favorable matchups, showcasing his ability to accumulate strikeouts effectively.

Facing the Chicago White Sox presents one such favorable matchup. They currently rank 3rd highest in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 games, sitting at 25.2%. With Olson being favored at -155 over 17.5 potential outs, he should have ample opportunities to rack up strikeouts in this game.

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