Getty Corbin Burnes pitching during an April 9 game against the Boston Red Sox.
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for May 13. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110, DraftKings)
Jordan Montgomery has struggled in all four of his starts this season, managing only a maximum of 4 strikeouts in a single game against the St. Louis Cardinals back on April 24th. With an average of just 2.5 strikeouts per game and a dismal 3.91 strikeouts per nine innings, his stats simply don’t justify a betting line set at 4.5 strikeouts.
His primary pitch, the slider, hasn’t been particularly effective, especially considering the Cincinati Reds proficiency against it, boasting a team strikeout percentage of 14.7% when facing this type of pitch. Despite the Reds’ recent slump, they’ve shown an ability to avoid strikeouts, ranking third lowest in strikeouts per game over the last three games. Additionally, only 6 out of the last 14 left-handed pitchers have managed to surpass the 4.5 strikeout line against the Reds.
Moreover, Montgomery’s recent encounter with the Reds resulted in a mere 2 strikeouts over 7 innings pitched. The short time span between matchups significantly favors the Reds, as they’ve had a chance to familiarize themselves with Montgomery’s pitching style. It’s often seen that pitchers struggle more against teams the second time around.
Given Montgomery’s low strikeout numbers and the Reds’ recent success in avoiding strikeouts, it seems like a risky bet to expect him to exceed this line.
Corbin Burnes Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-160, DraftKings)
Taking the over on Corbin Burnes strikeouts seems like a solid bet. Burnes boasts an impressive 30% strikeout rate against right-handed batters this season, and the Blue Jays lineup he’s up against features seven out of nine hitters who bat from the right side. Furthermore, the Toronto Blue Jays tend to strike out more against right-handed pitchers compared to lefties, adding to Burnes’ favorable matchup for racking up strikeouts.
Burnes has also been on a streak, surpassing the strikeout line in his last three consecutive games. This trend, combined with facing a lineup that plays to his strengths, makes for an excellent opportunity to continue his streak.
Additionally, Burnes tends to perform even better at home, where he averages 9.73 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 7.58 strikeouts per nine innings on the road. This home advantage further supports the likelihood of him exceeding the strikeouts mark in this matchup.
Lock of the Day
Sean Manea Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+125, DraftKings)
Considering Sean Manaea’s recent performance, although he has trended slightly towards the over on strikeouts for the season (averaging 4.4 strikeouts), it’s essential to examine the quality of his opponents. In his last five games, he faced solid offenses all of which rank in the top 10 for limiting strikeouts against left-handed pitchers.
In the last four out of five games against left-handed pitchers, the Philadelphia Phillies have seen a surge in strikeouts, averaging 7 strikeouts per game. During this stretch, their strikeout percentage against lefties has ballooned to 31.1%, ranking 29th in the league.
Looking at the Phillies’ projected lineup against left-handed pitchers, it reveals a concerning trend. Only two players have a strikeout percentage below 20%, while six have a strikeout percentage above 25% over the last two weeks.
With the Phillies starting three left-handed batters in Schwarber (36.5% strikeout rate), Harper (23.8% strikeout rate), and Marsh (47.1% strikeout rate), it’s worth noting Manaea’s impressive 35.3% strikeout rate against left-handed batters.
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