Getty Members of the New York Mets celebrating an April 4 walk-off win.
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for May 7. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Kutter Crawford Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-140, DraftKings)
Kutter Crawford’s consistency continues as he maintains an impressive 32.8% chase rate and a 24.2% strikeout percentage, boasting solid stats with a .209 expected batting average and a 2.93 expected ERA for the Boston Red Sox this season. Despite the Atlanta Braves reputation for a fearsome offense, they’ve been struggling lately, striking out frequently against right-handed pitchers. Over the past month, their offensive performance ranks 5th in strikeout rate at 25.5%, 19th in batting average at .228, 22nd in walk rate at 8.0%, and 22nd in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) at 67.
With Kutter’s ability to consistently pitch deep into games, having thrown no fewer than 84 pitches and maxing out at 100, he has covered this line in 23 out of 26 starts (86%) when reaching the 80+ pitch mark, and the 5.5 run line in 16 out of 26 starts (62%).
Randy Vasquez Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-175, DraftKings)
Randy Vasquez takes the mound for just his third start of the season, facing the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. In his limited appearances this year, he’s only managed 3 and 2 strikeouts, respectively. Throughout his career, he’s consistently trended towards the under, with 6 out of 7 starts falling under. Notably, he hasn’t surpassed 3 strikeouts in a game since May of the previous year during his tenure with the New York Yankees.
While the Cubs have struck out slightly more than average this season, their recent performance against right-handed pitchers has improved. Over the past week, they’ve posted a 16.0% strikeout rate against righties, placing them in the middle of the pack at 16th in MLB during this period.
Vasquez’s pitch count management has been unpredictable, as seen in his recent outing where he was pulled after just 72 pitches, despite a decent performance in the challenging environment of Coors Field. This suggests that if Vasquez encounters trouble, particularly around the 4th or 5th inning, there’s a possibility of an early exit from tonight’s game.
Lock of the Day
Jose Butto Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125, DraftKings)
The St. Louis Cardinals lineup features five hitters with a strikeout rate of 25% or higher, and two more hovering around 20%. Only Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan have a strikeout rate below 19%.
Jose Butto has been nearly dominant in the strikeout department this season, surpassing 4 strikeouts in 4 out of 5 starts. The lone miss came against the same Cardinals team, but it was an outlier performance with 15 swing and misses resulting in only 4 strikeouts. In his other two games with 15 or more swings and misses, he recorded 9 and 6 strikeouts respectively.
His current whiff rate places him in the 91st percentile, with a strikeout rate at 76%, solidifying his case for surpassing this relatively low line.
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