Getty Jayson Tatum drives to the basket with Luka Doncic defending.
The NBA Finals are upon us, with the Boston Celtics taking on the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 on Thursday night, June 6, from TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics enter the matchup both the heavy series (-225) and Game 1 (-6.5, -250) favorites, with Heavy’s projections putting the Celtics’ Game 1 win probability at 66%, with a spread of minus-5.
The Celtics haven’t played since May 27, when they eliminated the Indiana Pacers with a 105-102 win. On the other side, the Mavs have had less rest, securing their spot in the NBA Finals with a series-clinching 124-103 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Let’s take a look at the best bets for player props on both sides.
Dallas Mavericks Best Bets
Player to Score in the First 3 Minutes – Luka Doncic (-310)
While there is a logical reason to think the Mavericks will want to get Kyrie Irving going early in Game 1, the Celtics will not want Irving to gain the emotional upper hand with a quick start.
Traditionally, Luka Doncic has been the one to control the offense early, as he’s scored in the first three minutes in each of his last five contests. Doncic is second in the NBA Playoffs in first-quarter points, with an average of 9.6 over 17 games.
Kyrie Irving Made 3s – Over 2.5 (-111)
The Celtics have allowed 33.8% shooting from the 3-point line over the span of the 2023-24 NBA Playoffs, but that number deserves context. Over their 14 playoff games, the Celtics have allowed 12.4 3-point attempts that were “open” (nearest defender 4-to-6 feet), with their opponents making a paltry 28.2% of those attempts. It’s not great defense as much as bad shotmaking.
After starting the playoffs averaging 8.2 3-point attempts per game against the Los Angeles Clippers, Irving backed off in the first five games of the Oklahoma City Thunder series, shooting it from deep just 3.2 times per contest. Since then (six games), he’s back to attempting 7.0 3-pointers per game, making an average of 2.7.
Boston Celtics Best Bets
Player to Record 1+ Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks & Steals – Kristaps Porzingis (-160)
Before leaving Game 4 of the Eastern Conference First Round against the Miami Heat, Kristaps Porzingis was riding quite a streak, recording the following:
- 60 straight games with a point scored
- 60 straight games with a rebound secured
- 22 straight games with an assist
- 12 straight games with a block (and 26 of last 27)
- 3 straight games with a steal (and 8 of last 10).
The two issues to watch for are whether Porzingis is healthy and ready to play quality minutes and whether he’s able to secure a steal. Familiarity playing alongside Doncic in the past paired with having relatively fresh legs will play a role in getting that steal.
Player to Record a Double Double – Jayson Tatum (-135)
To say that this is the biggest game in Jayson Tatum‘s career would be an understatement. He’s going to come out aggressively and should pass the 10-point threshold quickly. The rebounds will take longer, though, over his last 14 games, he’s averaging 10.4 rebounds. Tatum has a double-double in six of his last seven and 10 of his last 12 games, the only misses in a game against the Pacers where both teams shot over 52% and a stinker against the Cleveland Cavaliers where they were outrebounded 44-31.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com/stats. All odds accurate as of publishing from FanDuel Sportsbook.