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The Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers go head-to-head in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final Saturday at Rogers Place, with Florida attempting to capture its first Stanley Cup and Edmonton looking to extend the series to at least five games.
The Panthers are within one win of the hoisting the Cup thanks to balanced scoring, elite goaltending, a perfect penalty kill and the ability to hold onto leads and win tight games. The Oilers, who overcame a deficit to win each of their past two playoff series, will look to stave off elimination and send the series back to Florida for Game 5.
Our model also projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during Saturday’s matchup. Let’s dive into some of our favorite game lines and player props for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final!
Hottest Game Lines: Panthers Moneyline & Total Goals
Florida Panthers Over Edmonton Oilers (-102, DraftKings)
Even after winning three straight over the Oilers, the Panthers aren’t favored to win Game 4. While they face the tall task of snapping a streak of 24 consecutive Stanley Cup Final series without a sweep, the Panthers have smothered the Oilers through the first three games of the series and look poised for a fourth straight win.
Under 5.5 Total Goals (-120, DraftKings)
Our model projects a low-scoring affair, with 4.5 total goals. Game 3 – a 4-3 Panthers win – was the only game in the series to cross that line, making it a good bet to take the under for Game 4.
Hottest Player Props: Shots on Goal
Aaron Ekblad: Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (+100, DraftKings)
Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad has hit the over for shots on goal in each of the last two games against the Oilers – recording 4 shots in Game 2 and 2 in Game 3 – and our model likes him to do the same in Game 4.
Aleksander Barkov: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+11o, DraftKings)
Conversely, Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov has yet to hit the over for shots on goal in a game this series. Still, our model projects a 20% increase over his average shot potential in Game 4, placing him over the betting line at 3.18.
Hottest Player Props: Anytime Goalscorers
Connor McDavid: Anytime Goalscorer (+120, DraftKings)
Oilers superstar Connor McDavid has yet to score a goal in this series against the Panthers, but he has collected 19 of his 34 points this postseason in games following a loss. Our model gives him the second-highest probability of scoring a goal for his team in Game 4 at 43%. The model has McDavid finishing over the betting line in tonight’s contest at 0.57, a 35% increase over his average of 0.42 goals per game.
Aleksander Barkov: Anytime Goalscorer (+225, DraftKings)
According to our model, Barkov has the highest probability of any player on his team to find the back of the net in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final. He is tied for third among Panthers skaters with 7 goals so far in the playoffs, and our model projects a 70% uptick in his goalscoring potential in Saturday’s contest.
Evan Bouchard: Anytime Goalscorer (+330, DraftKings)
Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard doesn’t have a goal yet in the Cup Final series; but he has scored 6 goals in 21 playoff games, and our model projects his scoring potential to more than double his average tonight in Game 4.
