PGA Championship 2024 Best Bets

The PGA Championship takes place at Valhalla Golf Club in Kentucky, boasting a par 71 and stretching across 7,457 yards. Designed by Jack Nicklaus, it features generously wide fairways, but beware the unforgiving Bluegrass rough. With water hazards on seven holes, partially lined with trees, and its considerable length, it poses a challenge for golfers. 

Valhalla stands as the lengthiest Par 71 course on the tour, emphasizing the importance of driving distance, albeit with a need for precision. Stray too far off the tee, and the punishing Kentucky rough awaits. Despite its length favoring big hitters, the firmer fairways, unlike other Nicklaus designs, offer some respite for shorter drivers. Thus, while length remains advantageous, accuracy is also crucial in navigating this challenging course. All statistical research is from Data Golf.

Make/Miss Cut Bet

Rickie Fowler To Make the Cut (-154, DraftKings)

While I’m not solely relying on past course performances, Rickie Fowler finds himself among a select few in this field who have fond memories at Valhalla, having finished T3 in the PGA Championship’s last visit in 2014. Admittedly, Fowler’s recent PGA TOUR performances have been lackluster since the Ryder Cup loss to Tommy Fleetwood in Rome last September. However, his promising showing in April, with a T30 at The Masters and T18 at the RBC Heritage, has renewed my interest in him at his current odds.

Looking at comparable courses, Fowler boasts an impressive track record at Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village, with a total of 13 top-15 finishes between them, including two last season. With the PGA Championship often producing compelling underdog narratives, Valhalla presents an ideal setting for Fowler to at least make the cut.

Finishing Position Bet

Max Homa to Finish Top 20 (+130, DraftKings)

Similar to many others, I may have been overly eager to see Max Homa clinch his first major title. Despite his disappointing record in majors, his strong performances in other significant PGA Tour events tempted anticipation of his breakthrough in a major rather than merely reacting to it. However, the timing now seems opportune. Homa’s early major appearances were dismal, with seven missed cuts out of eight until the 2021 US Open. Although his progress was gradual thereafter, with six cuts made in the next eight majors but only one finish better than 40th, his success in prestigious PGA Tour events, including two wins at the Wells Fargo and victories at Riviera and Torrey Pines, was notable. He finally made a mark in majors with a surprising 10th-place finish in the Open Championship at Hoylake last summer.

It’s the trajectory of Homa’s journey in the majors that intrigues me most, rather than assuming Valhalla is tailor-made for him. Nonetheless, there are compelling reasons to believe that this lengthy course will suit his game. He possesses sufficient length off the tee, averaging over 300 yards on the PGA Tour this season, and has shown strong performances at Jack’s Muirfield Village, finishing fifth and sixth in his last two starts at the Memorial. Additionally, his recent form on courses with Bentgrass greens, with finishes of 3-1-7-5-10 in his last five outings, adds to the optimism. A solid top-eight finish at the Wells Fargo last week, where he ranked eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, served as a promising warm-up.

It seems that Homa’s career trajectory has shifted, transitioning from a regular PGA Tour winner to a contender in majors. With recent finishes of 10th and third in his last two major appearances, this could indeed be his moment to shine.

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